The goal of this article is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspecified, nonnested models in the presence of possible data instability.
The distributional impact of proposed reforms plays a central role in public debates around tax and transfer policy. We show that accounting for realistic patterns of mobility in employment, earnings and household circumstances over the life-cycle greatly affects our assessment of the distributional effects of tax and transfer reforms.
In this paper we document significantly steeper declines in nondurable expenditures in the UK compared to the US, in spite of income paths being similar. We explore several possible causes, including different employment paths, housing ownership and expenses, levels and paths of health status, number of household members, and out-of -pocket medical expenditures. Among all the potential explanations considered, we find that those to do with healthcare—differences in levels and age paths in medical expenses—can fully account for the steeper declines in nondurable consumption in the UK compared to the US.
Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric QR-series framework, covering many regressors as a special case, for performing inference on the entire conditional quantile function and its linear functionals.
On 23 June 2016, the UK public voted in favour of leaving the European Union. However, important decisions remain about the model for the UK’s relationship with Europe outside of the EU, not least whether the UK seeks to remain a ‘member’ of the Single Market or only seeks (tariff-free) ‘access’. This report looks at exactly what the Single Market is and distinguishes between ‘membership’ and ‘access’, including the impact on the financial services sector. It also considers the potential for new trade deals beyond the EU and assesses the economic and public finance implications of the various options. This should inform the likely trade-offs between the level of access to the Single Market and other negotiating objectives such as control of immigration and budgetary contributions.
The rise in obesity has largely been attributed to an increase in calorie consumption. This column investigates this claim by examining the evolving consumption and lifestyles of English households between 1980 and 2013. While there has been an increase in calories from restaurants, fast food, soft drinks, and confectionery, there has been an overall decrease in total calories purchased. This decline in calories can be partially rationalised with weight gain by the decline in the strenuousness of work and daily life, and increasingly sedentary lifestyles.
This paper uses unique primary data on directly elicited individual subjective expectations to analyse and characterize the process that generates the income of poor, rural Indian households.
