In this part of Citi’s contribution to the Green Budget, we take a prospective look at the international environment for the UK economy. This includes an assessment of the near-term growth outlook of the UK’s major trade partners. But more importantly, it includes a discussion of the UK’s vulnerability to a reversal of economic and financial integration, be it at the global level (reversal of globalisation) or at a regional level (in the form of the UK’s exit from the European Union).
The IFS Green Budget 2018, in association with Citi, ICAEW and the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Christine Farquharson and Paul Johnson, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Philip Hammond as he prepares for his Budget later in October.
This Green Budget chapter sets out the context for the choices facing the Chancellor, considers the necessary trade-offs and describes some of the possible implications for public service spending.
This Green Budget chapter considers where the Chancellor might look if he wanted to increase tax receipts by about 1% of national income – enough to pay for the promised increase in NHS spending. We investigate how various possible tax rises differ in the revenue they would raise, the people who would pay them, and the extent to which they would weaken work incentives and improve or worsen other distortions.
In advance of the progress report expected with the 2018 Autumn Budget, this Green Budget chapter provides an overview of the assets owned by the UK public sector and discusses how the Balance Sheet Review can be used to improve the utilisation of public assets and the prospects for a comprehensive investment and asset management strategy.
This Green Budget chapter considers how the evolving defence and security position may affect defence resources and spending, and the pressure that this could put on the public finances.
In a speech on Tuesday 9th October, the Secretary of State for International Development, Penny Mordaunt, touched upon a number of important issues taking centre stage in current debates on UK aid spending, including Brexit and the role of private sector investment. These two substantive issues are interesting within the context of broader developments in UK aid spending in recent years. A new report by researchers from the IFS and the Center for Global Development (CGD) analyses how UK aid is spent and the potential drivers of these changes.
The UK is committed by law to spending 0.7% of gross national income on overseas aid every year. This fiscal commitment is notable given the significant public spending pressures across government. In this context, the government has overseen some important changes to how its aid is allocated in recent years. These include the pursuit of new strategic objectives, a greater emphasis on a cross-government approach, and an explicit focus on the role aid can play in serving the UK’s national interest.
In this chapter, we examine the falling rate of homeownership among young adults. We investigate the key trends in the housing market that young adults face, and the barriers that they create for young prospective homeowners. In particular, using data on the incomes of young adults and the range of property prices in the areas in which they live, we examine the impact of deposit requirements and the cap on mortgage borrowing as a share of income.
In this chapter, we focus on one particular aspect of Brexit – changes in trade barriers with the EU – and examine the consequences these might have for different industries, workers and regions.
