Report
Between 2007–08 and 2009–10, total government receipts collapsed – they fell by over 9% in real terms and were 2% lower as a proportion of national income – largely as a result of the financial crisis and resulting recession. By the end of this decade, government receipts are forecast to be 37.2% of national income,2 a little lower than in 2007–08 (37.5%) but higher than in 2009–10 (35.8%) and 2015–16 (36.3%) and a little higher than the average level over the two decades before the recession (36.4%).
On the face of it, these aggregate numbers imply that, by 2020–21, we will be more or less back where we started, raising around the same proportion of national income in revenue as just before the crisis. However, this masks considerable changes in the composition of receipts.