Downloads
CW1120-When-will-the-Covid-19-pandemic-peak.pdf
PDF | 462.09 KB
We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European CDC. We work with a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. This seems to accurately describe the trajectory of the epidemic in China. We use our model to predict when the peak of the epidemic will arise in terms of new cases or new deaths in other large countires. We find that for the UK, this peak is mostly likely to occur within the next two weeks. The total number of cases per day will peak at around 8000 yielding a little more than 255,000 cases in total.
Authors
Oliver Linton
Working Paper details
- DOI
- 10.1920/wp.cem.2020.1120
- Publisher
- The IFS
Suggested citation
Linton, O. (2020). When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?. London: The IFS. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/when-will-covid-19-pandemic-peak (accessed: 20 May 2024).
More from IFS
Understand this issue
Disability, illness and pain are real problems for the entire economy
28 August 2023
Conservative Party Conference: Can the next government afford the NHS?
Retirement is not always a choice that workers can afford to make
6 November 2023
Policy analysis
The past and future of UK health spending
14 May 2024
NHS spending has risen less quickly than was planned at the last election, despite the pandemic and record waiting lists
14 May 2024
Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits
19 April 2024
Academic research
The role of hospital networks in individual mortality
13 May 2024
Forced displacement, mental health, and child development: Evidence from Rohingya refugees
10 May 2024
Parental beliefs, perceived health risks, and time investment in children
15 April 2024