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SUMMARY

Chapter 1: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Global outlook
1.3 Risks to the global economy
1.4 Conclusions

Chapter 2: THE UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Double dip in 2012?
2.3 More favourable factors to help recovery next year
2.4 Medium-term recovery slower than usual
2.5 Comparison with other forecasts
2.6 Risks skewed to the downside: alternative scenarios for the UK economy
2.7 Conclusions

Chapter 3: FISCAL REPAIR: PAINFUL BUT NECESSARY

3.1 Introduction
3.2 The current state of the public finances and how we got here
3.3 Fixing the UK's public finances
3.4 The government's fiscal rules
3.5 International comparison of the UK's fiscal position and future plans
3.6 Risks to the public finances
3.7 Longer-term pressures
3.8 Conclusions

Chapter 4: GREEN BUDGET PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTs

4.1 Introduction
4.2 IFS fiscal forecasts
4.3 Uncertainties around the central forecasts
4.4 The Budget judgement

Chapter 5: PUBLIC SECTOR PENSIONS AND PAY

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Public sector pensions
5.3 Public sector pay
5.4 Conclusions

Chapter 6: LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING: WHERE IS THE AXE FALLING?

6.1 Introduction
6.2 Spending by local government in 2009-10
6.3 Where have the cuts fallen since 2009-10?
6.4 Putting the cust in context
6.5 Conclusions

Chapter 7: UK DEVELOPMENT AID

7.1 Introduction
7.2 UK ODA spending
7.3 Aid expenditure by DfID
7.4 International comparisons
7.5 Conclusions

Chapter 8: TAX REFORM AND GROWTH

8.1 Introduction
8.2 Welfare, output and growth
8.3 Principles of a good tax system
8.4 Reforming individual areas of the tax system
8.5 The tax mix
8.6 Conclusions

Chapter 9: THE 50P INCOME TAX RATE: WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT WILL BE KNOWN?

9.1 Introduction
9.2 Who pays the 50p rate?
9.3 How might the very rich respond to the 50p rate?
9.4 Evidence on how high-income individuals respond to tax changes
9.5 HM Treasury's estimate of the level of revenue raised
9.6 When will we know more about the revenue raised by the 50p tax rate?
9.7Conclusion

Chapter 10: CORPORATE TAX SETTING

10.1 Introduction
10.2 The taxation of corporate income
10.3 The taxation of income from intellectual property
10.4 Devolution of corporate tax setting powers
10.5 Summary and conclusions

Chapter 11: WITHDRAWING CHILD BENEFIT FROM BETTER-OFF FAMILIES: ARE THERE BETTER OPTIONS?

11.1 Introduction
11.2 The government's proposal for child benefit
11.3 Alternative ways of removing Child Benefit from better-off families with children
11.4 Summary and conclusions

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Forecasting the public finances
Appendix B: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix C: Abbreviations

© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, February 2012

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