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Home Publications PBR analysis: the public finances

PBR analysis: the public finances

Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Christine Frayne
Press release

Gordon Brown shrugged off the uncertainties that surround any forecast for the public finances and insisted in his Pre-Budget Report that he would meet his self-imposed constraints on borrowing without having to cut spending or announce new tax increases.

The Chancellor predicted in March that he would need to borrow £10.5bn this financial year to bridge the gap between tax revenues and non-investment spending. But over the first seven months spending has been stronger and tax revenues weaker than projected for the year as a whole. He would need around £23bn if these trends persist.