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This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes.
Authors
Geert Ridder
Research Associate University College London and University of Oxford
Martin is an IFS Research Associate, a Fellow of the Nuffield College and a Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford.
Johan Vikström
Working Paper details
- DOI
- 10.1920/wp.cem.2015.0115
- Publisher
- IFS
Suggested citation
G, Ridder and J, Vikström and M, Weidner. (2015). Bounds on treatment effects on transitions. London: IFS. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/bounds-treatment-effects-transitions-0 (accessed: 26 April 2024).
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