The Impact of Oportunidades on Consumption, Savings and Transfers

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the Mexican conditional cash transfer programme, Oportunidades, on transfers, savings and consumption for treated households. We find positive effects on consumption of non-durable and durable goods, an increase in savings coupled with a drop in the number and values of loans, and a reduction of in-kind transfers received by households in treatment areas. These results are consistent with the existing evidence that conditional cash transfer programmes have beneficial effects in both the short and medium term, but that they partly crowd out private transfers.