Source: Authors’ calculations using NHS England’s RTT waiting times data.
Note: We assume that the number of non-missing patients joining the waiting list grows at the rate assumed in the NHS long-term plan (3.2% p/a) until October 2024, and any ‘missing’ patients who return are in addition to that level. We assume that treatment capacity grows linearly from 99% in February 2022 (its level in November 2021) to the assumed value in October 2024 (the mid-point of 2024−25) and stays at that level thereafter. We assume that treatment volumes are 96% in January 2022 (the average in November and December 2021). We assume that the missing patients join the waiting list at an increasing, then flat, then decreasing rate over the next 2.5 years. Different sets of assumptions generate different sets of projections; readers can generate their own using the interactive tool published alongside this observation.
