Chancellor Philip Hammond delivered his Autumn Budget Statement on Monday 29 October 2018. Below is some initial commentary from IFS Director Paul Johnson and IFS researchers.
IFS Budget briefing
Analysis was presented at a briefing on Tuesday 30 October 2018. Slides from the briefing:
- Introductory remarks, Paul Johnson
- The end of deficit reduction?, Thomas Pope
- Patching up business taxes, Helen Miller
- Personal taxes and benefits, Tom Waters [and Distributional analysis, Agnes Norris Keiller and Tom Waters]
- The end of austerity?, Ben Zaranko
The latest economic forecast implies sluggish growth is set to continue.— IFS (@TheIFS) October 29, 2018
Even in 2023 the @OBR_UK only expects growth of 1.6%, a lower medium-term growth rate than almost all forecasts made since 1985 #Budget2018
More analysis and comment here: https://t.co/iS3r5tsR3b pic.twitter.com/eFLhPDRgnf
Employment and unemployment numbers shown here are great news. Growth forecasts emphatically are not. https://t.co/yASF5hYMwz— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) October 29, 2018
We're getting a digital services tax but only due to raise ~£400m - that's pretty small compared to corp tax revenues of over £50bn. #Budget2018— Helen Miller (@HelenMiller_IFS) October 29, 2018
Do we have enough money now? What is a fair tax rate and how much tax do people pay?
"What we think is a fair tax rate depends on who we think of when we think of a rich person". IFS Associate Director Helen Miller gives her thoughts in 'Beyond Today', a new BBC Radio 4 podcast. Listen here.
Does the 2018 Autumn Budget mark a dramatic change in economic terms?
Green Budget 2018
Our annual Green Budget looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Philip Hammond as he prepares for his Budget. The full report, published on 16 October, includes commentary and analysis on risks to the public finances, options for raising taxes and trade-offs for the forthcoming spending review. Citi provide an economic outlook for the UK economy and ICAEW look at defence spending and public sector assets.
Will it be a victory for spreadsheet Phil or for political expediency?
IFS Director Paul Johnson writes in The Times, Monday 29 October.
- View full Times article on the IFS website here
An end to austerity?
IFS analysis suggests that even a minimal definition of ending austerity would require an additional £19bn in 2022-23