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Book chapter
Benjamin Nabarro
The UK faces a long road to economic recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this chapter, we consider the near-term outlook in depth. Lockdown measures implemented in response to COVID-19 slashed nearly two decades of growth from the UK economy in March and April of this year. Since ...
Book chapter
Christian Schulz
The COVID-19 outbreak and the policy response to it have not just dominated the economic and fiscal developments in 2020 so far; they also set the starting point for the rest of the year and 2021. As long as the virus remains a significant health threat – with no vaccine and no highly effective ...
Book chapter
Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Isabel Stockton
The COVID-19 crisis has pushed up government borrowing substantially, meaning that the Debt Management Office will need to sell a much larger value of gilts than normal. In our central scenario, we forecast the total amount to exceed £1.5 trillion, more than double the Budget forecast in March. ...
Book chapter
The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures implemented to contain it will lead to a huge spike in government borrowing this year. We forecast the deficit to climb to £350 billion (17% of GDP) in 2020–21, more than six times the level forecast just seven months ago at the March Budget. ...
Book chapter
Benjamin Nabarro
All indications point to only a thin trade deal (if any) with the European Union after the Brexit transition period ends in December. Despite over four years passing since the referendum, many of the associated economic costs still likely lie ahead. The shock from Brexit will affect different ...
Book chapter
The COVID-19 crisis has led to a profound shock to the labour market, one consequence of which is a rising number of claimants of means-tested benefits and higher entitlements among existing claimants.
Book chapter
In this chapter we conduct a timely assessment of individuals’ current awareness of their State Pension Age (SPA) and the income they can expect from the state pension, and explore how knowledge of these has changed over the past decade as the state pension system has been reformed.
Book chapter
This government has pushed geographic inequalities to the top of the policy agenda. In his very first speech as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson made clear his intent to boost economic performance outside of London and the South East, to ‘level up’ across the country and to revive the fortunes of ...
Book chapter
The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has announced his intention to hold a Comprehensive Spending Review this year.
Book chapter
A growing elderly population, increases in the number of disabled adults, and increases in wage and other costs, mean that English councils will likely need billions in extra funding over the next parliament if they are to meet the rising costs of providing adult social care.