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Book chapter
A growing elderly population, increases in the number of disabled adults, and increases in wage and other costs, mean that English councils will likely need billions in extra funding over the next parliament if they are to meet the rising costs of providing adult social care.
Book chapter
The fiscal targets bequeathed by former chancellor Philip Hammond all expire during the current forecast period. Moreover, the government has stated that it wants to keep open the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit and, should this occur, it would require an important decision on how fiscal ...
Book chapter
Christian Schulz and Benjamin Nabarro
The phase of synchronised growth the world enjoyed in 2017 and early 2018 has come to an end. Following two years when the global economy finally expanded faster than its long-run average of 3.0%, growth looks set to slow to 2.8% in 2019. This is a significant disappointment compared with forecasts ...
Book chapter
Benjamin Nabarro and Christian Schulz
The overall outlook for economic growth, and its constituent parts, underpins any fiscal event, with implications for the public finances, public spending, taxation and living standards. Growth in the size of the UK economy – known as gross domestic product or GDP – has averaged 1.3% (on an ...
Book chapter
The 2019 Spending Round, published in September 2019, set departmental budgets for the 2020−21 financial year. Chancellor Sajid Javid topped up the spending plans pencilled in by his predecessor, announced spending increases across the board and declared austerity to be over. But these increases ...
Book chapter
Graham Atkins, Aron Cheung, Joe Marshall and Gemma Tetlow
Since the 2016 vote to leave the European Union, Brexit has become the policy area that dominates debate in the UK. It defined Theresa May’s government and will undoubtedly consume much of the government’s time and energy over the next few years, regardless of how the Brexit agenda evolves or ...
Book chapter
Benjamin Nabarro and Christian Schulz
The global outlook and recent trends in the UK economy point to significant headwinds for growth going forwards. Arguably the most important determinant of the UK’s economic trajectory will be the continuing process of leaving the European Union. Brexit no longer ‘just’ determines future ...
Book chapter
Post-financial-crisis, public sector borrowing – the gap between government revenue and spending – has fallen and, at the March 2019 Spring Statement, it stood below its long-run historical average. However, a number of changes have occurred since March, or loom on the horizon.
Book chapter
Taxes on motoring raise around £40 billion a year for the exchequer (around 5% of government revenue), equivalent to about £750 per adult in the UK. Most of this comes from fuel duties, which in 2019–20 are expected to raise £28 billion in their own right plus an additional £5.7 billion from ...
Book chapter
The new prime minister has expressed a desire to radically overhaul the direct personal tax system. This chapter sets out the impacts of the prime minister’s proposed policies.