Borrowing to take the strain until the election. More pain on spending, jobs and, recent history suggests, tax after the election

The IFS Green Budget, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is published today. Main findings include:

• On current plans public service spending in “unprotected” Whitehall departments could fall by a third between 2010–11 and 2017–18

• If departments continue with trajectories implied by current plans public sector employment will have fallen by 1.2 million by 2017–18 • But within the current parliament the Chancellor has chosen not to cut spending or raise taxes further to offset much higher borrowing resulting from a weaker economy. As a result borrowing is forecast to be £64 billion higher in 2014–15 than he originally hoped.