Follow us
Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS
Home Publications Micro-simulating child poverty in 2010 and 2020

Micro-simulating child poverty in 2010 and 2020

Mike Brewer, James Browne and Holly Sutherland
External publication

The paper describes how micro-simulation techniques were used to forecast relative child poverty in the UK in 2010 and 2020 under various scenarios for future policy and socio-demographic change. This modelling work was at the core of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation's project 'What will it take to end child poverty?'. It starts by looking at what would happen under present policies, projecting that the poverty rate would be fairly stable, and fall substantially short of meeting government targets for reduction. It then looks at the possible structure and cost of various benefit and tax credit changes, whose projected effects would be sufficient to meet the targets. These projections are not forecasts, but illustrations that allow the size of the impact of various policies to be compared, holding constant a number of unknown factors that could influence the eventual poverty rate.

Deaton inequality website

More on this topic

Presentation
This presentation was delivered to students and faculty members at Durham University on 30th January 2020.
IFS Working Paper W19/31
The UK taxes business income at much lower rates than employment income. In this paper we describe the problems caused by that differentiation and assess the main arguments used to defend it. We summarise the Mirrlees Review’s proposals for radical reform that would align tax rates across legal ...