Journal Article

Forecasting the PSBR outside government: the IFS perspective

Date: 01 February 1998
ISSN: Print: 0143-5671 Online: 1475-5890
Published in: Fiscal Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1, February 1998 , Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 83-100
JEL classification: E6, H1, H6.

Expectations regarding the future state of the public finances are vital for public policy formation. The UK experience has been that forecasts of the PSBR have been beset with problems since the mid-1980s. Independent assessments of the accuracy and plausibility of public finance forecasts are an important check on government forecasts and serve to increase public debate over government finance issues. We examine the success of various possible methods available to those outside government.