The revenue effect of changing alcohol duties

Since the completion of the Single Market in 1992 it has become easier for people in the UK to take advantage of lower priced goods across the border. Alcohol is one good where there has been particular concern about the level of cross-border shopping because of differences in tax rates between the UK and France. If the Chancellor wants to reduce the amount of cross-border shopping by cutting duty, the important policy question is whether overall these two effects would have a positive or negative effect on revenue.