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IFS Green Budget 2020

Report

The IFS Green Budget 2020 is produced in association with Citi and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation. It analyses the huge economic trauma since the March Budget, the much heightened uncertainty over the path of the economy in coming years, and the big decisions confronting Chancellor Rishi Sunak as he continues to decide how policy should respond to support households, business and public services in the coming year and beyond.

Separate chapters, as well as the full report and a summary document, are available below. 

Chapter 1. Global economic outlook: lessons from the pandemic | Chapter

In this chapter we look at some of the developments of the past year and lessons to draw from them, before presenting Citi’s current global economic forecasts.


Chapter 2. UK economic outlook: the long road to recovery | Chapter

The UK faces a long road to economic recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this chapter, we consider the near-term outlook in depth.


Chapter 3. The cost of adjustment: emerging challenges for the UK economy | Chapter

Adjustment to a post-COVID, post-Brexit new normal will have economic costs that last into the long term. We consider them in this chapter. 


Chapter 4. Outlook for the public finances | Chapter

In this chapter, we start by characterising the outlook for the UK’s public finances over the next five years and then turn to the longer-run outlook beyond the COVID crisis.

Presentation: Isabel Stockton, IFS - The outlook for the public finances


Chapter 5. Managing much-elevated public debt | Chapter

The COVID-19 crisis has pushed up government borrowing substantially. In this chapter, we look at the implications.

Presentation: Carl Emmerson, IFS - Managing elevated debt


Chapter 6. Spending Review 2020: COVID-19, Brexit and beyond | Chapter

In this chapter, we outline the public spending framework and explain which components of spending are subject to the Spending Review process, and why.


Chapter 7. Levelling up: where and how? | Chapter

In this chapter, we consider the evidence on UK regional inequalities and place them in international context. We then assess which areas might be classified as ‘left behind’ and in need of ‘levelling up’, and how this might be affected by the economic fallout from COVID-19 and Brexit. 


Chapter 8. The temporary benefit increases beyond 2020–21 | Chapter

In this chapter, we discuss the options that the government faces in unwinding, adjusting or making permanent the temporary expansions to the working-age benefits system.

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Presentation
Press release
Government borrowing this year will reach a level never before seen in the UK outside of the two world wars of the 20th century. If that were just a one-off hike in borrowing to deal with the current crisis, it needn’t be cause for undue concern; but higher borrowing will be with us for some time ...