IFS Green Budget 2018

The IFS Green Budget 2018, in association with Citi, ICAEW and the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Christine Farquharson and Paul Johnson, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Philip Hammond as he prepares for his Budget later in October.

Chapter 1. Global outlook: forward to the past | Chapter and presentation slides

In this part of Citi’s contribution to the Green Budget, we take a prospective look at the international environment for the UK economy.

Chapter 2. UK outlook | Chapter and presentation slides

In this chapter, we provide an overview of the UK’s recent economic performance and compare it with our and other forecasters’ projections in 2016. We then present our current forecasts, based on our smooth-Brexit base case.

Chapter 3. Risks to the UK public finances | Chapter and presentation slides

In this chapter, we set out the current state of the public finances, the outlook for the future, and some of the key economic and policy risks to the public finances in the medium and long term.

Chapter 4. Trade-offs for the forthcoming Spending Review | Chapter and presentation slides

This chapter sets out the context for the choices facing the Chancellor, considers the necessary trade-offs and describes some of the possible implications for public service spending.

Chapter 5. Options for raising taxes | Chapter and presentation slides

This chapter considers where the Chancellor might look if he wanted to increase tax receipts by about 1% of national income – enough to pay for the promised increase in NHS spending.

Chapter 6. ICAEW: public sector assets | Chapter and presentation slides

In advance of the progress report expected with the 2018 Autumn Budget, this chapter provides an overview of the assets owned by the UK public sector and discusses how the Balance Sheet Review can be used to improve the utilisation of public assets and the prospects for a comprehensive investment and asset management strategy.

Chapter 7. ICAEW: Defence | Chapter and presentation slides

This chapter considers how the evolving defence and security position may affect defence resources and spending, and the pressure that this could put on the public finances.

Chapter 8. How the UK spends its aid budget | Chapter and presentation slides

We provide a descriptive analysis of aggregate UK aid spending and its composition.

Chapter 9. Barriers to homeownership for young adults | Chapter and presentation slides

This chapter investigates the key trends in the housing market that young adults face, and the barriers that they create for young prospective homeowners.

Chapter 10. The exposure of different workers to potential trade barriers between the UK and the EU | Chapter and presentation slides

In this chapter, we focus on one particular aspect of Brexit – changes in trade barriers with the EU – and examine the consequences these might have for different industries, workers and regions.

Appendices | Download appendices

Appendix A. Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds

This appendix was updated on 17 October 2018 to incorporate newly released inflation estimates for the year to September 2018.

Appendix B. Abbreviations