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Causal effects of a policy change on the hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change when there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identication of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.
Authors
Deputy Research Director
Monica is a Deputy Research Director and Professor of Economics at the University of Bristol, with an interest in Labour, Family and Public Economics.
Gerard Van Den Berg
Research Fellow Paris School of Economics
Antoine is a Research Fellow, an Associate Professor at the EHESS, and Director of the Institut des Politiques Publiques (IPP) in Paris.
Working Paper details
- DOI
- 10.1920/wp.ifs.2018.W1810
- Publisher
- The IFS
Suggested citation
A, Bozio and M, Costa Dias and G, Van Den Berg. (2018). Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes. London: The IFS. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/policy-discontinuity-and-duration-outcomes (accessed: 18 April 2024).
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