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Programme evaluation for policy analysis

Principal Investigator: Professor Mike Brewer

Answering questions about the effectiveness of state interventions in economic and social domains - such as 'Did this training programme help the participants get back to work?', or 'Did this child health programme improve children's outcomes?' - is the goal of programme evaluation.

Robust programme evaluation is difficult: researchers have to estimate causal impacts credibly and understand the uncertainty in their estimates, and policy-makers have to determine how best to synthesize and generalise the lessons learned from multiple studies.

PEPA aims to stimulate a step change in the conduct of programme evaluation, and maximise the value of programme evaluation by improving the design of evaluations and improving the way that such evaluations add to the knowledge base.

PEPA research programme aims to (i) advance our understanding of the value of randomised control trials in social science; (ii) improve inference for policy evaluation; (iii) develop the key relationships between alternative methods for policy evaluation; (iv) understand how best to combine quasi-experimental methods with dynamic behavioural models; and (v) determine how to measure social networks and then use such data for programme evaluation.

PEPA also apply the methods they develop to evaluate a number of important policy questions, and they run a programme of training and capacity building activities.

PEPA is based at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap.

Further information about PEPA.

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All available publications

04 May 2013
Presentations
Article
This presentation was delivered at the Annual Meeting of the Society of Labor Economists in Boston, USA on 4th May 2013
01 January 2013
Journal Articles
Article

Matching methods for treatment evaluation based on a conditional independence assumption do not balance selective unobserved differences between treated and non-treated. We derive a simple correction term if there is an instrument that shifts the treatment probability to zero in special cases. Policies with eligibility restrictions, where treatment is impossible if some variable exceeds a certain value, provide a natural application. In an empirical analysis, we exploit the age eligibility restriction in the Swedish Youth Practice subsidized work program for young unemployed, where compliance is imperfect among the young. Adjusting the matching estimator for selectivity changes the results towards making subsidized work detrimental in moving individuals into employment.

06 December 2012
Presentations
Article
Presentation for the Social Research Association (SRA) Annual Conference, British Library
25 October 2012
Presentations
Article
Paper given at the 4th Joint IZA/IFAU conference on labour market policy evaluation, October 25-26 2012
23 October 2012
cemmap Working Papers
Article
In this paper the authors study a random coefficient model for a binary outcome.
22 September 2012
Presentations
Article
Paper given at the Annual Conference of the European Association of Labour Economists (EALE), Bonn, September 22, 2012
20 September 2012
Presentations
Article
This paper was given at the EALE 2012 conference in Bonn.
13 September 2012
Presentations
Article
This presentation was delivered at the WPEG conference 2012
13 September 2012
Presentations
Article
Delivered at the Work Pensions and Labour Economics (WPEG) conference 2012.
13 September 2012
Presentations
Article
Delivered at the Work Pensions and Labour Economics (WPEG) conference 2012.
10 September 2012
Presentations
Article
This presentation was delivered as part of the PEPA contribution to the 2012 ESRC Research Methods Festival.
10 September 2012
Video clip
Article
What Is? sessions are designed to provide an introduction to a range of research methods and related methodological issues. The methods will be presented in an accessible fashion and their uses will be described. In this session the presentations will be on multimodality and regression discontinuity. Each presentation will last about 25 minutes and will be followed by about 20 minutes of questions from the audience, who are assumed to be interested but to have no prior knowledge of the method under discussion.
22 August 2012
cemmap Working Papers
Article
This paper studies simultaneous equations models for two or more discrete outcomes.
05 July 2012
Presentations
Article
This talk gives an overview of evaluation methods in microeconomic policy, in particular those based on randomized trials and IV methods.
05 July 2012
Presentations
Article

We review popular evaluation methods in policy analysis, showing the relationship between social experiments (randomised control trials), matching methods, instrumental variables, and control functions.

This presentation was delivered as part of the PEPA contribution to the 2012 ESRC Research Methods Festival.

05 July 2012
Video clip
Article

This presentation was given at the fifth ESRC Research Methods Festival at St Catherine’s College, Oxford, on 3 July 2012.

What Is? sessions are designed to provide an introduction to a range of research methods and related methodological issues.

05 July 2012
Presentations
Article
This presentation was part of the PEPA contribution to the 2012 ESRC Research Methods Festival which took place on 2-5 July 2012.
03 July 2012
Presentations
Article
This presentation was given at the fifth ESRC Research Methods Festival at St Catherine’s College, Oxford, on 3 July 2012.
03 July 2012
Video clip
Article
This presentation was given at the fifth ESRC Research Methods Festival at St Catherine’s College, Oxford, on 3 July 2012.
14 June 2012
Presentations
Article
Dynamics and Policy Evaluation presented at PEPA conference - London June 14 2012
01 May 2012
External publications
Article
Economics has a long tradition of studying causal questions. Over the past few decades causal methods have been widely employed in measuring the impact of government policies.
11 April 2012
IFS Working Papers
Article
Incorrect knowledge of the health production function may lead to inefficient household choices, and thereby to the production of suboptimal levels of health. This paper studies the effects of a randomised intervention in rural Malawi which, over a six-month period, provided mothers of young infants with information on child nutrition without supplying any monetary or in-kind resources.
13 January 2012
Presentations
Article
This presentation was given by Monica Costa Dias at the NCRM 2012 Annual Centre Meeting.
19 October 2011
IFS Working Papers
Article
This paper examines trends in household consumption and saving behaviour in each of the last three recessions in the UK.
14 September 2011
External publications
Article
This report analyses the impact that ERA has had on a variety of outcomes experienced by working members of the New Deal for Lone Parents and Working Tax Credit target groups, as well as on the tax year earnings of working members of the New Deal 25 plus target group.
01 August 2011
IFS Working Papers
Article
This paper uses administrative data to evaluate a targeted, time-limited policy aimed at getting lone parents off benefits and into work.
08 June 2011
IFS Working Papers
Article
We study the UK Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) and find robust evidence of a behavioural effect of the labelling.
19 April 2011
Presentations
Article
This presentation was delivered at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference and at the SOLE Conference in April 2011.
01 September 2010
Journal Articles
01 March 2010
External publications
Article
The aim of this report is to explore how the findings from the experimental research on ERA relate to the impacts that would have been experienced, on average, by all the people who were eligible for the programme, had they participated in the study.

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