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Public spending and finance
IFS researchers conduct ongoing analysis of the outturns of and outlook for the public finances. Our work in this area looks at forecasts of government revenues and spending (overall and on specific areas) and aims to inform public debate, particularly around the time of Budgets, Autumn Statements, Spending Reviews and Elections. Over many years we have kept track of the evolution of the public finances and how different governments have fared. A number of IFS publications have assessed the fiscal performance of past administrations.

The financial crisis and the economic damage associated with it opened up a structural hole in the public finances that, if left unaddressed, would be impervious to the economic recovery and would put public sector debt on an unsustainable path. The coalition Government faces a significant challenge to restore the public finances to better health. A comprehensive description of how the public finances evolved through the Great Recession can be found in Disease and cure in the UK: the fiscal impact of the crisis and the policy response.

Overview of research on public spending and finance.

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Year: 575 publications
01 June 1999
R61
Tom Clark, Chris Giles and John Hall
The report starts from first principles, asking whether there is any need for a benefit to relieve the council tax and identifying problems with the very structure of council tax benefit. It goes on to consider whether council tax benefit succeeds in leaving local tax bills affordable for low-income groups, using data from the FRS. Even after allowing for benefit, it is found that council tax bills pose an especially large burden for elderly people. Further, a widespread failure to take up entitlement to benefit is found to be preventing the benefit's cleverly designed rules from actually helping many of those in most need. The problems identified in the design and performance of council tax benefit motivate the consideration of several reforms, which range from outright abolition to minor simplification.
01 May 1999
Tim Besley, John Hall and Ian Preston
In spite of government dominance in financing health care in many countries, the private health care sector remains important.
01 February 1999
W99/02
Joao M.C. Santos Silva and Frank Windmeijer
The demand for certain types of health care services depends on decisions of both the individual and the health care provider.
01 December 1998
C071
This commentary assesses the impact of capping on local service provision. In particular it addresses the following questions. What factors determine desired local spending? Did capping constrain spending by local councils? Which local services bore the brunt of any cuts? Did the quality of local services suffer as a result?
01 November 1998
C072
Richard Disney, Alissa Goodman, Amanda Gosling and Chris Trinder
This Commentary looks at public pay in detail, tracing its trend relative to the private sector over the 1980s and 1990s and showing how the gap in pay between the public and private sectors differs dramatically across occupations, gender and education groups. These findings illustrate how misleading comparisons of public and private sector pay based on aggregate data can be.
01 August 1998
Nicolas Bloom and John Van Reenen
This paper examines the arguments for changing the ways that UK drug prices are regulated.
01 May 1998
C070
Carl Emmerson and John Hall
This report provides a response to the government's proposals. Is the current local government system likely to discourage "over-spending" by councils in the absence of capping powers? Will the government's proposals make the link between local spending decisions and Council Tax bills clearer to voters? Can measures to encourage councils to respond to the views of their residents be successful in making councils more accountable to local people?.
01 May 1998
John Hall
This article assesses the merits of using private finance to deliver public services against three criteria: whether it will lead to additional investment in social infrastructure, whether it represents good value for the taxpayer's money and whether the use of private finance will reduce the public sector's flexibility to pursue its public service objectives.
01 February 1998
C068
Carl Emmerson, John Hall and Lindsay Brook
In this commentary, the authors examine public support for more local decision making and increased freedom for local councils to raise council tax levels. They also assess whether local voters would support higher spending on local services such as schools, housing and the police if they had to pay for it directly through higher council tax bills.
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Current research
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Impact on Society
An IFS economist advised a “Citizens Jury” on the welfare system, including basic facts and important issues about its purpose and structure.
Past research into pension reform has contributed to evidence given to government on public service pensions.
Public spending analysis stokes public debate and prompts increased transparency over government’s plans for spending cuts.
IFS researchers have evaluated whether the temporary VAT cut was able to boost the economy effectively.
IFS researchers helped make a case against proposed cuts to public spending on science.
IFS arguments for independent official fiscal forecasts contributed to the government’s decision to set up an Office for Budget Responsibility.
IFS recommendations for presenting fiscal forecasts are being taken up by the new Office for Budget Responsibility.
Research told policymakers that, despite greater expenditure on health care, Americans are less healthy than their English counterparts.
IFS researchers assessed the government’s fiscal rules and advised policymakers as to how they could be made more credible.
We provided evidence to the Browne Review of higher education funding about the impact of a number of higher education finance reforms.
IFS researchers draw together lessons from behavioural economics for tax and benefit policy in a report aimed at policymakers.
We analysed the impact of the 2006 HE funding reforms and informed the surrounding debate.
IFS researchers have investigated whether it is possible to measure the distributional impact of changes to spending on public services.