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Public spending and finance
IFS researchers conduct ongoing analysis of the outturns of and outlook for the public finances. Our work in this area looks at forecasts of government revenues and spending (overall and on specific areas) and aims to inform public debate, particularly around the time of Budgets, Autumn Statements, Spending Reviews and Elections. Over many years we have kept track of the evolution of the public finances and how different governments have fared. A number of IFS publications have assessed the fiscal performance of past administrations.

The financial crisis and the economic damage associated with it opened up a structural hole in the public finances that, if left unaddressed, would be impervious to the economic recovery and would put public sector debt on an unsustainable path. The coalition Government faces a significant challenge to restore the public finances to better health. A comprehensive description of how the public finances evolved through the Great Recession can be found in Disease and cure in the UK: the fiscal impact of the crisis and the policy response.

Overview of research on public spending and finance.

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Year: 499 publications
19 January 2006
W06/02
Pau Olivella and Marcos Vera-Hernandez
We develop a test for adverse selection and use it to examine private health insurance markets.
20 December 2005
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Christine Frayne
09 December 2005
Carl Emmerson and Christine Frayne
So the chancellor has managed - just - to keep within his fiscal rules.
05 December 2005
Robert Chote and Carl Emmerson
Robert Chote and Carl Emmerson look at the implications for the public finances from the Chancellor's Pre-Budget Report.
18 November 2005
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Christine Frayne
11 November 2005
Robert Chote
Will the chancellor manage again to use his Treasury black arts to keep within his economic rules, or will he now have to admit that his forecasts were optimistic?
20 October 2005
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Christine Frayne
27 September 2005
Robert Chote
The economy remains in fairly good shape, but the chancellor's self-imposed rules may have put him in unnecessary danger.
20 September 2005
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Christine Frayne
18 August 2005
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Current research
Started: 31 January 2012
Started: 28 September 2010
Started: 15 March 2010
Started: 29 January 2010
Impact on Society
IFS researchers helped make a case against proposed cuts to public spending on science.
IFS arguments for independent official fiscal forecasts contributed to the government’s decision to set up an Office for Budget Responsibility.
Past research into pension reform has contributed to evidence given to government on public service pensions.
Research told policymakers that, despite greater expenditure on health care, Americans are less healthy than their English counterparts.
IFS researchers have evaluated whether the temporary VAT cut was able to boost the economy effectively.
We analysed the impact of the 2006 HE funding reforms and informed the surrounding debate.
We provided evidence to the Browne Review of higher education funding about the impact of a number of higher education finance reforms.
IFS researchers assessed the government’s fiscal rules and advised policymakers as to how they could be made more credible.
IFS recommendations for presenting fiscal forecasts are being taken up by the new Office for Budget Responsibility.
Public spending analysis stokes public debate and prompts increased transparency over government’s plans for spending cuts.
An IFS economist advised a “Citizens Jury” on the welfare system, including basic facts and important issues about its purpose and structure.
IFS researchers have investigated whether it is possible to measure the distributional impact of changes to spending on public services.