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The IFS Green Budget 2017, in association with ICAEW and funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Paul Johnson and Robert Joyce, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Philip Hammond as he prepares for his Budget in March. Additional analysis has been provided by ICAEW and Oxford Economics.

1

The global economy

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1.1

Introduction

1.2

Global outlook

1.3

Risks to the global economy

1.4

Conclusion

  

2

The UK economic outlook

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2.1

Introduction

2.2

Short-term outlook

2.3

Medium-term outlook – subdued pace of growth in prospect

2.4

Comparison with other forecasts

2.5

Assessment of the risks

2.6

Conclusion

  

3

Challenges for the UK public finances

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3.1

Introduction

3.2

The big picture

3.3

Planned deficit reduction through this parliament

3.4

Medium-term risks

3.5

Conclusion

3.6

Postscript

  

4

ICAEW: public sector liabilities in the Whole of Government Accounts

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4.1

Introduction

4.2

The Whole of Government Accounts and total liabilities

4.3

Pension liabilities

4.4

Long-term liabilities, contingent liabilities and commitments

4.5

Conclusion

  

5

UK health and social care spending

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5.1

Introduction

5.2

UK public spending on health

5.3

Health spending in England

5.4

Social care spending in England

5.5

Long-run spending on health and social care

5.6

Conclusion

  

6

Working-age incapacity and disability benefits

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6.1

Introduction

6.2

Patterns of spending on incapacity and disability benefits

6.3

The structure of financial support: principles and practice

6.4

Incapacity benefit reform and the disability employment gap

6.5

Conclusion

  

7

Tax, legal form and the gig economy

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7.1

Introduction

7.2

Changes in work patterns

7.3

How are different legal forms taxed?

7.4

Should the self-employed and company owner-managers be taxed less heavily than employees?

7.5

How should tax policy be changed?

7.6

Conclusion

  

8

Reforms to apprenticeship funding in England

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8.1

Introduction

8.2

Evaluating the case for government intervention

8.3

Apprenticeships policy: past, present and future

8.4

Likely effects of the new system of apprenticeship funding

8.5

Conclusion

 

Appendix

  

9

ICAEW: debt

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9.1

Introduction

9.2

Debt

9.3

Funding over the next five years

9.4

Strategy and risks

9.5

Conclusion