Report (R112)

IFS Green Budget 2016

Date: 08 February 2016
Authors:
Publisher: Institute for Fiscal Studies

    Nuffield Foundation logo

The IFS Green Budget 2016, in association with ICAEW and funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Paul Johnson and Robert Joyce, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor George Osborne as he prepares for his Budget in March. Additional analysis has been provided by ICAEW and Oxford Economics.

You can find links to recordings of the launch presentations beside the respective chapters below. Green Budget videos are also available to view on our Youtube Green Budget 2016 playlist

Download the full report [4,641 KB], or the individual chapters below.

1

The global economy

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4

Introduction
Global outlook
Risks to the global economy
Conclusion

2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6

The UK economic outlook
Introduction
Short-term outlook
Medium-term outlook – steady but unspectacular growth
Comparison with other forecasts
Risks heavily skewed to the downside: alternative scenarios for the UK economy
Conclusion

 

See Andrew Goodwin's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5

Fiscal targets: committing to a path of budget responsibility?
Introduction
Fiscal policy principles
The new mandate for fiscal policy
The supplementary targets
Conclusion

 

See Carl Emmerson's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5

Whole of Government Accounts: an ICAEW assessment
Introduction
Five years of WGA
Further insights from the WGA
Using WGA to improve financial management in an era of change
Conclusion

 

See Ross Campbells's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4

Risks to the rules: tax revenues
Introduction
Uncertainty in revenue forecasts
Policy risk
Conclusion

 

See Carl Emmerson's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5

Risks to the rules: public spending
Introduction
Public service spending
Social security spending
Debt interest spending
Conclusion

 

See Gemma Tetlow's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5

Infrastructure funding: an ICAEW assessment
Introduction
Private investment in public infrastructure
Encouraging more private investment
Improving public investment decisions
Conclusion

8
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5

Corporate tax avoidance: tackling Base Erosion and Profit Shifting
Introduction
Avoidance: how and how much?
The BEPS recommendations
Main implications for UK policy
Conclusion
Appendix 8.1 The BEPS recommendations

 

See Thomas Pope's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

9
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.5

Excise duties
Introduction
Principles of excise taxation
Current excise duties
A tax on sugar?
Conclusion

 

See Kate Smith's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

10
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6

The (changing) effects of universal credit
Introduction
What is universal credit, and how have the government’s plans changed over time?
Who gains and loses from the introduction of universal credit?
The impact of universal credit on work incentives
What impact has universal credit had so far?
Conclusion

 

See Robert Joyce's presentation from the Green Budget launch 2016.

 

Appendix A. Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix B. Abbreviations