Report (R106)

IFS Green Budget 2015

Date: 04 February 2015
Authors:
Publisher: Institute for Fiscal Studies
DOI: 10.1920/re.ifs.2014.0106

The IFS Green Budget 2015, in association with ICAEW and funded by the Nuffield Foundation, was edited by Carl Emmerson, Paul Johnson and Robert Joyce, and copy-edited by Judith Payne.

ICAEW logo   Nuffield Foundation logo

The report analyses the issues and challenges facing Chancellor George Osborne as he prepares for his final Budget of this parliament.
Additional analysis was be provided by ICAEW and Oxford Economics.

IFS Green Budget 2015 from Institute for Fiscal Studies on Vimeo.

Download the full report [10,600 KB], or the individual chapters below.

 

1

Public finances under the coalition

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5

Introduction
Labour’s bequest
The coalition’s actions
How does the UK compare internationally?
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

2

Earnings since the recession

2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6

Introduction
Employment and the characteristics of the employed
Average earnings
Earnings for different groups
Prospects for earnings
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

3

The global economy

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4

Introduction
Global outlook
Risks to the global economy
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

4

 The UK economic outlook

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6

Introduction
The UK economy may be headed back to a period of NICEness
Medium-term outlook – steady but unspectacular growth
Comparison with other forecasts
Risks balanced: alternative scenarios for the UK economy
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

5

Public finances: a dicey decade ahead?

5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6

Introduction
Risks posed by high government debt
The size of the problem could be different
Cutting spending and keeping it down
Is expected growth in tax revenues feasible and permanent?
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

6

The government’s financial accounts: an ICAEW perspective

6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4

The UK government’s financial accounts
Using Whole of Government Accounts to strengthen financial decision making within government
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

7

Options for further departmental spending cuts

7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4

Introduction
Choices made so far: 2010–11 to 2015–16
Options for the 2015 Spending Review
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

8

Challenges for health spending

8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5

Introduction
Past and current health spending
Pressures on English NHS spending
The outlook for English health spending
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

9

Options for reducing spending on social security

9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4

Introduction
Social security spending: evolution and composition
Options for future cuts
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

10

Options for increasing tax

10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7

Introduction
Taxation in the UK
Broad-based tax increases
Taxing the better-off
Scaling back tax reliefs
Temptations to resist
Conclusion

 

Click here for the presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget 2015.

   
 

Appendix A. Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix B. Abbreviations

Support from the ESRC through the Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS is gratefully acknowledged.

ESRC logo