The UK Government’s deficit reduction plan means the Welsh Government faces at least four more years of budget cuts on top of those already delivered over the three years since 2010-11. While overall spending may be able to rise from 2017-18 significant challenges will remain. In particular, pressures for increased spending in areas such as health, social services and schools over the period to 2025-26 could see continuing spending cuts in other areas, such as transport, culture and housing.

These are among the main conclusions of new IFS research, funded by Wales Public Services 2025 and being launched at a conference in Cardiff today. The research looks at recent changes in Welsh Government spending, and the prospects for the Welsh Government budget under various scenarios as far as 2025-26.