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Today the Office for National Statistics and HM Treasury published Public Sector Finances October 2012. We now have details of central government receipts, central government spending, public sector net investment, borrowing and debt for the first seven months of financial year 2012–13.
Rowena Crawford, a Senior Research Economist at the IFS, said:“Today’s figures will likely result in an unpleasant feeling of déjà vu for the Chancellor as he prepares for next month’s Autumn Statement. As was the case last year, a worse-than-expected decline in corporation tax receipts in October has contributed to an overall picture of lower-than-expected growth in revenues so far this year. Spending on the administration and delivery of public services has also again grown more slowly so far than forecast for the year as a whole.”
“Last year the level of underspending was sufficient to offset the lower than forecast growth in revenues at this point in the year, leaving borrowing looking broadly on course to meet the previous forecast. However, this year the potential spending undershoot looks to be able to offset only partially the weaker–than−expected receipts. If the trends in central government receipts and non-investment spending were to continue for the remainder of 2012−13, borrowing would come in £13 billion higher than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility in March.”
IFS public finance bulletins are generously supported by the Economic and Social Research Council. The analysis is based on IFS calculations and does not reflect the views of the ESRC.
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