Public finances: weaker outlook reduces room for manoeuvre

Understand this issue

The way Chancellors respond to economic news adds to our debt - here's why

explainer

Chancellors don’t respond symmetrically to good and bad economic news. The result is higher debt.

1 March 2024

2p cut is welcome but fiscal risks are serious

comment

"Whoever is chancellor after the next election, is going to have to face up to some hard truths," Paul Johnson in The Times.

23 November 2023

Debt can be redefined but it won’t disappear. Hard decisions are needed

comment

"The bind is a real one. Both we and our political leaders need to face up to it." Paul Johnson writes for The Times.

23 October 2023

Policy analysis

Top-ups to the Scottish Budget for 2024–25 are likely – but huge uncertainty on their scale

comment

More funding to top up the Scottish Government’s 2024–25 spending plans is likely to become available – but just how much is highly uncertain.

22 February 2024

Outlook for the public finances

report

In the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, tax cuts at the upcoming Budget would be extremely difficult to justify.

17 October 2023

No room for unfunded tax cuts or spending increases – this year or next

press release

We are in a horrible fiscal bind as low growth and high debt interest payments mean no room for manoeuvre.

17 October 2023

Academic research

A monetary-fiscal theory of sudden inflations

working paper

This paper posits an information channel as the explanation for sudden inflations.

20 December 2022

Rewriting the fiscal rules

book chapter

The Chancellor was right to suspend the current set of fiscal targets during the pandemic, and he is also right to take time to consider what a good set of post-pandemic targets will be.

12 October 2021

Spending Review 2021: plans, promises and predicaments

book chapter

In this chapter, we look at the options and trade-offs for the Chancellor ahead of the forthcoming Spending Review.

12 October 2021