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We study transitions in and out of work for men over the age of forty in order to investigate the principal determinants of retirement age. We apply non-parametric techniques to describe the exit to retirement. We then estimate a multiple spell model of transitions in and out of work allowing for correlated heterogeneity across different types of spells. We also present an LM test of unobserved heterogeneity for multiple spell models. Finally, we assess the importance of economic variables in determinining transitions and we find that increased earnings in work delay job exit while increased social security benefits delay the return to work. In conjunction, the two effects imply that economic incentives may be important determinants of the retirement age.
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Recent IFS Working Papers
Saving on a rainy day, borrowing for a rainy day
The aim of this paper is to understand what a recession means for individual consumers, and to model in a life-cycle framework how individuals respond to recessions.
House prices and home ownership: a cohort
analysis
Using survey data spanning multiple house-price cycles over nearly forty years, this paper documents the association between house prices and homeownership at age thirty.
The effect of the financial crisis on older households in England
We use these data and earlier ELSA waves first to document the effect of the crisis on the finances of those aged 50 and over in England, and second, to estimate the effect of wealth shocks on household consumption and individual expectations of the future.
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