Between 2010-11 and 2013-14 average incomes are forecast to stagnate and both absolute and relative poverty among children and working-age adults are expected to rise, according to projections funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and published today by the IFS.

The IFS researchers forecast absolute and relative income poverty amongst children and working-age adults for each year to 2013-14, using a static tax and benefit micro-simulation model combined with official macroeconomic and demographic forecasts, taking into account current government policy. They also forecast poverty under a scenario where the coalition Government simply implemented the plans for the tax and benefit system it inherited from the previous administration. Poverty beyond 2013-14 is likely to be affected by the Universal Credit, and future work will forecast poverty to the end of this Parliament when the Government publishes its Welfare Reform Bill.

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