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Type: Journal Articles Authors: Thiess Buettner and Bjoern Kauder ISSN: Print 0143-5671Online: 1475-5890
Published in: Fiscal Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, September 2010
Volume, issue, pages: Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 313-340
JEL classification: H68, H11 Keywords: revenue forecasting, international comparison, OECD countries, forecast error
This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. It turns out that the cross-country differences in the performance of revenue forecasting are first of all associated with uncertainty about the macroeconomic fundamentals. To some extent, they are also driven by country characteristics such as the importance of corporate and (personal) income taxes. Also, differences in the timing of the forecasts prove important. However, controlling for these differences, we find that the independence of revenue forecasting from possible government manipulation exerts a robust, significantly positive effect on the accuracy of revenue forecasts. Search |
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