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Journal Articles
September 2010 (Blackwell Publishing)
Article
Demographic Change and Pension Reform in Spain: An Assessment in a Two-Earner, OLG Model
Type: Journal Articles
Authors: Alfonso R. Sanchez Martin and Virginia Sanchez-Marcos
ISSN: Print 0143-5671 Online: 1475-5890
Volume, issue, pages: Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 405-452
JEL classification: D58, H55, J11
Keywords: pension system reform, demographics, two-earner household

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Recent pension reforms in Spain have been guided by two opposite goals: achieving financial stability and improving redistributive aspirations. In particular, reforms implemented in 1997/2001 entailed a mixture of both through: (i) changes in the pension formula; (ii) the extension of entitlement to early retirement to all cohorts; and (iii) increases in survival pensions. This paper builds an applied general equilibrium OLG model that captures the fundamental non-stationarity of the Spanish reality (ageing population, education transition and increasing female attachment to the labour market) to assess the impact of those reforms. As a novel feature with respect to the literature, households in our model economy are made up of two potential earners who make saving and labour supply decisions. Our main conclusions from the analysis are at three different levels. First, the Spanish pension system is clearly unsustainable, with pension expenditure reaching a figure of about 18 per cent of GDP in 2050, and the reforms have clearly been ineffective in improving the pension system's financial prospects. Second, the reforms have had substantial redistribution effects, benefiting low-educated groups compared with high-educated groups and future cohorts compared with current chorts. Finally, we show that exploring the financial prospects with traditional single-earner household models may result in underestimates of the future financial burden of the pension system.

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