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Type: Observations Authors: Robert Chote
Now that the Office for Budget Responsibility has delivered its judgement that the structural hole in the public finances is slightly larger than Alistair Darling claimed in his final Budget in March, attention turns to how George Osborne might go about filling it in his first Budget next week. The Coalition partners have agreed that the "main burden" of the fiscal repair job should fall upon public spending cuts. But this clearly leaves open the possibility that the Chancellor will choose to announce fresh tax increases on top of those left in the pipeline by Labour - not just to help bring down the deficit, but also to pay for the other tax cuts that the Coalition partners have agreed to deliver (such as increasing the income tax personal allowance). Much attention will focus of the quantity of any such tax increases, but we should be just as concerned by their quality. Will they exacerbate the weaknesses of the current tax system or begin to eliminate them? And will the Coalition demonstrate a commitment to tax reform that goes beyond the design of any revenue raising measures? IFS researcher Paul Johnson has explored some of the "do's and don'ts" in a talk at the London School of Economics, which you can find here. It draws on lessons from the Mirrlees Review of the UK tax system, which is being carried out under the auspices of the IFS, of which Paul is one of the editors, and which is now being finalised for publication in the autumn. Paul lists the main defects in the tax system that the Review has identified and argues that the Coalition should make its Budget decisions with a long-term vision for the reform of the tax system in mind. A guiding principle of the Review is that the tax system and much of the benefit system needs to be viewed as a whole when we think about how taxes influence people's behaviour (for good and ill) and how they redistribute resources within the population and across generations. He previews a number of the Review's recommendations, among them:
More details of the Mirrlees Review can be found here.
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Recent Observations
Cutting the deficit: three years down, five to go?
The UK is in the fourth year of a planned eight-year fiscal tightening. Following further announcements made in Budget 2013, this fiscal consolidation is now forecast to total £143 billion by 2017–18. The UK is intending the fourth largest fiscal consolidation among the 29 advanced economies for which comparable data are available. By the end of this financial year, half of the total consolidation is expected to have been implemented. However, within this tax increases and cuts to investment spending have been relatively front-loaded, while cuts to welfare spending and other non-investment spending have been relatively back-loaded.
Deficit unchanged
The March Budget forecast that borrowing would fall by £0.1 billion from £121.0 billion in 2011–12 to £120.9 billion in 2012–13. On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics is due to release its first estimate of public sector net borrowing in March 2013 and, therefore, for the whole of 2012–13. Borrowing could easily end up being higher or lower than it was in the previous year, either due to backwards revisions, the uncertainty inherent in forecasting borrowing even a month in advance, or both. However, whether borrowing is slightly up or down in cash terms is economically irrelevant. Either way, the bigger picture is that having fallen by roughly a quarter between 2009–10 and 2011–12, borrowing is forecast to be broadly constant through to 2013–14.
Women working in their sixties: why have employment rates been rising?
Employment rates through the recession have been remarkably robust, with today’s ONS figures showing employment remaining close to 30 million. The young have experienced historically low employment rates and high unemployment rates but the employment rate of women aged 60 to 64 has increased as fast since 2010 as it did during the 2000s. An important explanation is the gradual increase in the state pension age for women since 2010, which has led to more older women being in paid work. Without this policy change, the employment rate for 60 to 64 year women would have been broadly flat since 2010.
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