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Type: Observations Authors: Robert Chote
There is a lot we do not yet know about how Labour and the Conservatives would go about repairing Britain's battered public finances over the next few years. But yesterday's speeches by David Cameron and Alistair Darling at least highlight a sharp difference of opinion over what should be done next year. Yet the picture is quite not as straightforward as either makes out. The Conservatives' latest line of attack is that the Government is planning to increase public spending by just over £30 billion next year, from £671.4 billion in 2009-10 to £701.7 billion in 2010-11. Mr Cameron said this was "reckless" and that spending cuts should begin next April to start bringing government borrowing back down to sustainable levels. But it is worth remembering that two-thirds of the increase in spending next year can be accounted for by rising social security costs (which are forecast to go up by £6.2 billion) and increasing central government interest payments (which are forecast to rise by £15.7 billion). Neither is straightforward for the government to reduce sensibly in the short term. Departmental Expenditure Limits - the amount Whitehall has to spend on public services and administration - are set to increase by only £3.2 billion next year (the Government already having cut them by £5 billion in last year's Pre-Budget Report, thanks to some conveniently identified "efficiency savings"). Once you take into account whole-economy inflation, this actually represents a 0.7% cut in real terms. If a Conservative government were to take office in May or June next year, it would be interesting to see where exactly they think they could make sensible and significant additional cuts in the remaining 10 months or so of a fiscal year that will already be underway. Mr Darling meanwhile attacked the Conservatives for proposing early spending cuts on the grounds that this would withdraw support for the economy at a time when recovery is not yet firmly rooted: "At the weekend, G20 finance ministers agreed that we must continue to support our economies until recovery is established. To cut spending now would kill off the recovery." But it is worth remembering that even the Government is currently planning to withdraw fiscal support for the economy next year. Its Budget plans show it ending the fiscal stimulus that is currently in place next year and beginning some modest tightening - a swing of around 2% of national income in total. Indeed, according to the International Monetary Fund, the UK is the only G20 country other than Argentina planning to withdraw its fiscal stimulus in calendar year 2010. The Conservatives are hardly likely to attack them on this front, as they opposed the stimulus in the first place. But there will be others of more Keynesian bent who think that the Government and the Conservatives alike are proposing to withdraw fiscal support for the economy prematurely. The choices for 2010-11 are only a small part of the picture, of course. The parties will have to decide when and how quickly they would wish to reduce government borrowing over the longer-term - and through what combination of tax increases and spending cuts. On Wednesday 16th September we will be publishing a briefing note outlining some of the trade-offs.
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Recent Observations
Cutting the deficit: three years down, five to go?
The UK is in the fourth year of a planned eight-year fiscal tightening. Following further announcements made in Budget 2013, this fiscal consolidation is now forecast to total £143 billion by 2017–18. The UK is intending the fourth largest fiscal consolidation among the 29 advanced economies for which comparable data are available. By the end of this financial year, half of the total consolidation is expected to have been implemented. However, within this tax increases and cuts to investment spending have been relatively front-loaded, while cuts to welfare spending and other non-investment spending have been relatively back-loaded.
Deficit unchanged
The March Budget forecast that borrowing would fall by £0.1 billion from £121.0 billion in 2011–12 to £120.9 billion in 2012–13. On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics is due to release its first estimate of public sector net borrowing in March 2013 and, therefore, for the whole of 2012–13. Borrowing could easily end up being higher or lower than it was in the previous year, either due to backwards revisions, the uncertainty inherent in forecasting borrowing even a month in advance, or both. However, whether borrowing is slightly up or down in cash terms is economically irrelevant. Either way, the bigger picture is that having fallen by roughly a quarter between 2009–10 and 2011–12, borrowing is forecast to be broadly constant through to 2013–14.
Women working in their sixties: why have employment rates been rising?
Employment rates through the recession have been remarkably robust, with today’s ONS figures showing employment remaining close to 30 million. The young have experienced historically low employment rates and high unemployment rates but the employment rate of women aged 60 to 64 has increased as fast since 2010 as it did during the 2000s. An important explanation is the gradual increase in the state pension age for women since 2010, which has led to more older women being in paid work. Without this policy change, the employment rate for 60 to 64 year women would have been broadly flat since 2010.
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