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In this paper we evaluate the effect of a large welfare program in rural Mexico. For such a purpose we use an evaluation sample that includes a number of villages where the program was not implemented for evaluation purposes. We estimate a structural model of education choices and argue that without such a framework it is impossible to evaluate the effect of the program and, especially, possible changes to its structure. We also argue that the randomized component of the data allows us to identify a more flexible model that is better suited to evaluate the program. We find that the program has a positive effect on the enrollment of children, especially after primary school. We also find that an approximately revenue neutral change in the program that would increase the grant for secondary school children while eliminating for the primary school children would have a substantially larger effect on enrollment of the latter, while having minor effects on the former.
Authors
CPP Co-Director
Orazio is an International Research Fellow at the IFS, a Professor at Yale and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Research Fellow Yale University
Costas is a Research Fellow of the IFS and a Professor of Economics at Yale University and a Visiting Professor at University College London.
Inter-American Development Bank
Working Paper details
- Publisher
- IFS
Suggested citation
O, Attanasio and C, Meghir and A, Santiago. (2005). Education choices in Mexico: using a structural model and a randomised experiment to evaluate Progresa. London: IFS. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/education-choices-mexico-using-structural-model-and-randomised-experiment-evaluate (accessed: 26 April 2024).
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