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The Green Budget 2004 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Helen Simpson, and copy-edited by Judith Payne.

It was produced with support from the Nuffield Foundation and the ESRC-funded Centre for Fiscal Policy at IFS.

Chapter 1: SUMMARY

Chapter 2: PLANNING THE PUBLIC FINANCES

2.1 The Chancellor's fiscal rules
2.2 Planning and forecasting revenues
2.3 Planning government spending
2.4 Conclusions

Chapter 3: IFS PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS

3.1 Borrowing in 2002-03
3.2 Borrowing in 2003-04
3.3 Medium-term prospects
3.4 The Budget judgement

Chapter 4: WHAT DO THE CHILD POVERTY TARGETS MEAN FOR THE CHILD TAX CREDIT?

4.1 Options for raising revenue
4.2 Child poverty under Labour
4.3 The child tax credit
4.4 Is the government likely to meet its child poverty target in 2004-05?
4.5 What would it cost to reduce child poverty further?
4.6 Conclusion

Chapter 5: INCOME TAX AND NATIONAL INSURANCE CONTRIBUTIONS

5.1 Income tax and National Insurance: a history of convergence
5.2 The system from April 2003
5.3 Options for further reform

Chapter 6: COMPANY TAXATION AND INNOVATION POLICY

6.1 The August 2002 consultation
6.2 Dividend taxes
6.3 North Sea taxation
6.4 Stamp duty on shares
6.5 R&D and policy towards innovation

Chapter 7: CHILDCARE SUBSIDIES

7.1 Why subsidise childcare?
7.2 Families' employment and childcare use
7.3 Options for subsidising childcare
7.4 Potential numbers of eligible families and budget costs, holding childcare and employment constant
7.5 Allowing childcare responses (holding employment constant)
7.6 Considering employment responses
7.7 Impacts across families
7.8 Conclusions

Chapter 8: MEASURING PUBLIC SECTOR EFFICIENCY

8.1 Efficiency measurement in the public sector
8.2 Conclusions

Chapter 9: THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF FISCAL REFORMS SINCE 1997

7.1 What fiscal reforms?
7.2 The distributional impact of reforms directly affecting households
7.3 Limitations of the distributional analysis
7.4 Taxes on business
7.5 Stamp duty on residential properties
7.6 Conclusion

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Distributional effects of pre-announced direct tax and benefit reforms due in 2003-04
Appendix C: Budgets since 1979
Appendix D: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix E: Tax revenues ready reckoner

© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2003

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