Why social security expenditure in the 1980s has risen faster than expected: the role of unemployment

<p>The difficulties encountered in forecasting social security expenditure (significantly underpredicted for much of the 1980s) have long been a source of concern-not least to officials in the DSS. Although official forecasts are undertaken and published primarily because they are needed for the public expenditure planning process, they should also palay a scientific role in testing the underlying theories abou the determinants of social security spending. </p>