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Election analysis 2010
Date started: 17 March 2010
Analysis of the parties' proposals in the run-up to the general election 2010 will be posted here as it becomes available. This work has been kindly funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
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12 July 2010
Observations
Article
The Coalition agreement reiterated the Conservative's manifesto pledge to "increase the proportion of tax revenue accounted for by environmental taxes". Past experience suggests that this is easier said than done: environmental taxes fell sharply as a share of total receipts during the Labour Government's period in office despite a similar ambition to shift taxes from 'goods' to 'bads'. Unless the Coalition announces new increases in environmental taxes, the latest forecasts show they are unlikely to meet their pledge either.
12 May 2010
IFS Press Releases
Article
In this press release we provide an initial analysis of the information in the new coalition government's agreement on their plans to tackle the public finances and on their planned tax and benefit reforms.
04 May 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This election briefing note reviews the policies that the three main UK political parties have announced in their manifestos that relate to state pensions, private pension saving, public sector pensions, and employment at older ages.
04 May 2010
Observations
Article
The Labour party is pointing to the fact that the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats are proposing cuts to child tax credit for middle- to high-income families with children. But just what cuts are being proposed and which families would be affected? And how different is this from current policy?
29 April 2010
Observations
Article
All the main UK political parties claim to have put the needs of families at the heart of their campaigns. The Conservative Party has also pledged to end the couple penalty for all couples in the tax credit system. How does the reality - as measured by specific pledges in their manifestos - match up to the rhetoric?
29 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This Election Briefing Note, drawing in part on past notes in this series, analyses the manifesto proposals of the three main political parties in the area of families with children.
28 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
In this election briefing note, we look at the environment policy proposals put forward by the three main UK political parties in their manifestos, as well as the current government's plans for the future.
28 April 2010
Observations
Article
The Conservatives have pledged in their manifesto to "increase the proportion of tax revenues accounted for by environmental taxes, ensuring that any additional revenues from new green taxes that are principally designed as an environmental measure to change behaviour are used to reduce the burden of taxation elsewhere".
27 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This Briefing Note examines what the parties have said (explicitly and implicitly) about the scale, timing and composition of the fiscal repair job ahead, teasing out the differences and similarities.
27 April 2010
Presentations
Article
This presentation was delivered at the IFS 2010 Election Briefing on 27 April 2010.
27 April 2010
Presentations
Article
This presentation was delivered at the IFS 2010 Election Briefing on 27 April 2010.
27 April 2010
Presentations
Article
This presentation was delivered at the IFS 2010 Election Briefing on 27 April 2010.
27 April 2010
Presentations
Article
This paper summarises the IFS Election 2010 Briefing notes.
27 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This note discusses the tax and benefit proposals of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, looking at their economic and administrative merits, their distributional impact and their effect of incentives to work and save.
27 April 2010
Presentations
Article
Robert Chote, Director of IFS, delivered these opening remarks at the IFS 2010 Election Briefing on 27 April 2010.
26 April 2010
Observations
Article
On the face of it, there appears to be much agreement between the three main UK parties on education policy: they all propose the creation of new schools or academies, and all plan to introduce a 'pupil premium' that is intended to provide more funds to schools with disadvantaged pupils. On closer examination, however, this apparent consensus fades away - there are real and significant differences between the parties' approaches to the education system.
26 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This note looks at trends in education spending under Labour and at the three main parties proposals for early years, schools and higher education.
23 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
In this Briefing Note we focus on changes to the corporate tax environment alongside direct policies that aim to correct market failures.
23 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
In this Briefing Note, we briefly describe trends in UK productivity over the recent recession and how they compare with those in the US.
23 April 2010
Observations
Article
Today's GDP figures show that the economy grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2010. In the election campaign much has been made of the impact of the timing of spending cuts and tax increases on the ability of the UK economy to sustain this recovery. This is an important issue, but much less attention has been given to the equally important question of how UK growth is likely to fare in the medium term which will be largely determined by efficiency with which we produce goods and services and the extent to which we develop new ideas.
21 April 2010
Observations
Article
Sensibly, there is general agreement between the three main parties on the need to tackle the large rise in youth and long-term unemployment caused by the recession, and all parties have policies to help deal with the high number of people who are out of work and receiving disability benefits. Today, the IFS publishes an analysis of the welfare and back-to-work policies proposed by the three main UK parties for welfare reform.
21 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This Briefing Note reviews developments in welfare policy under the current government and analyses the manifesto proposals of the three main political parties in this policy area.
21 April 2010
External publications
Article
Efficiency savings alone won't be enough to sort out the UK's massive deficit and there will have to be cuts in the quality and/or quantity of public services coupled with cuts to welfare benefits and increases in tax, write Rowena Crawford and Carl Emmerson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
20 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
In this note, we will examine Labour's record on environmental policy since 1997. We start with a broad overview of the environmental record, looking at key outcomes on environmental taxes, expenditures and emissions and continue by looking in detail at policy developments and outcomes.
19 April 2010
IFS Reports
Article
This Commentary documents in some detail how children's cognitive and social development differs between married and cohabiting parents, and provides a preliminary assessment of the extent to which such differences might be due to a causal effect of marriage itself.
19 April 2010
IFS Press Releases
Article
Young children's cognitive or social and emotional development does not appear to be significantly affected by the formal marital status of their parents, according to a new report from IFS researchers.
19 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This general election briefing note looks at how overall levels of borrowing and debt changed between 1997 and 2010.
14 April 2010
Observations
Article
The Liberal Democrat manifesto contains more extensive and more detailed tax and spending proposals than those of the other main UK parties. But taking as given the Liberal Democrats' estimates of the amounts that their proposals will cost and raise, the document is less clear than it could be in setting out how these proposals fit into the party's overall plan to repair the public finances.
14 April 2010
Observations
Article
The Liberal Democrats propose to increase the income tax personal allowance to £10,000 while keeping the level of income at which people start to pay the higher rate of tax unchanged. They say this giveaway would cost £16.8 billion in 2011-12. They also propose a set of significant tax-raising measures, but do their plans add up?
13 April 2010
Observations
Article
The Conservative manifesto did not tell us anything about their tax and spending plans we did not already know. In particular, it was no more explicit about how much more ambitious the Conservatives would be than the Government in reducing the budget deficit over the medium term. The Conservatives promised only
12 April 2010
Observations
Article
The key question for the next Government is what size and combination of public spending cuts and tax increases to implement to repair our public finances. Anyone looking for a more detailed answer from Labour in its manifesto will have been disappointed.
12 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
Even more than in previous elections, the appropriate size of the state - measured by public spending as a share of national income - is a key issue.
12 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This election briefing note examines the evolution of the tax burden over the last 60 years.
12 April 2010
Observations
Article
The Liberal Democrats have, once again, claimed that the poor pay more of their income in tax than the rich, and that this gap has got larger under Labour. But, by ignoring the fact that the poor get most of this income from the state in benefit and tax credit payments, and by overstating the extent to which indirect taxes are paid by the poor, this comparison is meaningless at best and misleading at worst.
09 April 2010
IFS Press Releases
Article
The Conservative Party has announced how it intends to recognise marriage and civil partnerships in the tax system if it forms the next government.
08 April 2010
Observations
Article
As we watch the parties squabble over how much can be achieved in efficiency savings this year, it is worth remembering that we will not be able to judge with confidence which was right even after the event.
07 April 2010
IFS Press Releases
Article
The tax and benefit measures implemented by Labour since 1997 have increased the incomes of poorer households and reduced those of richer ones, largely halting the rapid rise in income inequality we saw under the Conservatives. Despite this, inequality was still slightly higher in 2007-08 than when Labour came to office, according to the first set of Election Briefing Notes to be released by the IFS to help inform public debate during the general election campaign.
07 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This election briefing note finds strong evidence of an increase in the rate of severe poverty since 2004-05, mirroring a rise in the official poverty rate, although the rate of persistent poverty does seem to have fallen under Labour, at least until 2007.
07 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
In this Briefing Note, we assess the changes to living standards that have occurred under the first 11 years of the Labour government and compare these changes with what happened under previous governments.
07 April 2010
IFS Briefing Notes
Article
This Election Briefing Note describes the main tax and benefit reforms since 1997, and shows how they have affected total government revenues.
29 March 2010
IFS Press Releases
Article
The Conservative Party plans to cut central government spending on public services outside the NHS, defence and overseas aid by £6 billion in the coming financial year in order to finance a cut in National Insurance that would offset most of the impending increase that the Government has already announced.
15 March 2010
Observations
Article
Last week Chancellor Alistair Darling warned us not to expect a giveaway in next week's Budget, while his Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Liam Byrne, reassured us that the Government could halve the deficit by 2013-14 without announcing any further tax increases. If both statements prove correct - no pre-election tax giveaway and no new post-election tax takeaway - then this would break the pattern of the last four general elections.

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