Facts and figures about UK taxes, benefits and public spending.
Income distribution, poverty and inequality.
Analysing government fiscal forecasts and tax and spending.
 | ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy. |
Analysis of the fiscal choices an independent Scotland would face.
Case studies that give a flavour of the areas where IFS research has an impact on society.
Reforming the tax system for the 21st century.
A peer-reviewed quarterly journal publishing articles by academics and practitioners.
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Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP)
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Date started: 01 October 2001
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This paper is the first to apply the principle of maximum entropy to the month of birth problem.
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We provide the first evidence on whether differences in childhood outcomes translate into differences in the probability of employment, occupation and earnings for adults in the UK.
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This paper uses data from a rich UK birth cohort to estimate the differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills between children born at the start and end of the academic year.
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This is the English translation of the chapter 'Tributación medioambiental: principios económicos y experiencia en el Reino Unido' published in Pelegry, E. and M. Larrea Basterra (eds.) (2013), Energía y Tributación Ambiental, Orkestra, Basque Institute for Competitiveness
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This report presents projections of relative and absolute income poverty among children and working-age adults in every year to 2016-17, and in 2020-21.
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This article is published in the International Tax Review, May 2013
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Paper given at the 32nd Annual Cumberland Lodge Police Conference: The Legitimacy of Policing, 19-21 April 2013
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We examine ill-health retirement of police officers in England and Wales between 2002-3 and 2009-10.
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22 March 2013 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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Presentation given at the IFS post budget briefing, 21 March, 2013.
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Presentation given at the IFS post budget briefing, 21 March, 2013.
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Presented at the IFS post budget briefing on 21 March 2013
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Presentation given at the IFS post budget briefing, 21 March 2013
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Presentation given at the Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, 12 March 2013
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This is the first of two reports examining welfare reform and poverty in Northern Ireland.
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Total losses may bigger than those suffered in the 1980s, but they are more evenly spread argues Paul Johnson in an article in The Scotsman.
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This briefing note considers the effectiveness of the proposed minimum unit price of alcohol.
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Last week the Prime Minister David Cameron told MPs that he was determined to “deal with” the “problem of deeply discounted alcohol in supermarkets and other stores” and said that the Government was considering the results of a consultation into a proposed minimum unit price for alcohol. In this observation, IFS researchers consider the merits of such a policy and argue that taxing alcoholic drinks on the basis of their alcohol content, with higher tax rates on stronger than weaker drinks, would be more effective at targeting those drinking above recommended levels than would a minimum alcohol price.
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This report provides an overview of socio-economic indicators that can be used to define educational disadvantage.
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Since April 2010 the age at which women can first receive a state pension has been rising from 60 and is due to rise to 66 by 2020. So far this change has had a strong effect in increasing employment among those women directly affected by the reform.
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This paper was given at the Nuffield Foundation on 8th March 2013
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This opinion piece is published in the article 'Stamp duty dodges target mass market' by Tanya Powley in the Financial Times, February 22, 2013.
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21 February 2013 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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With exactly one month to go until the Budget, IFS and the Institute for Government are holding a joint event on how tax policy might be better made. In this observation, Paul Johnson, IFS director, reflects on why we still have a long way to go in designing a more coherent tax system and why the current policymaking process may be partly to blame.
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This report attempts to quantify, as far as possible, the likely effects of the UK coalition government’s welfare reforms (excluding tax changes) on labour supply in Wales.
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This is a reponse to the UK Government's consultation on defining a new 'multidimensional' measure of child poverty.
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In a speech in Bedford today, the Leader of the Opposition, Ed Miliband, has proposed reintroducing a 10% income tax rate on a narrow band of income, to be paid for by a new ‘mansion tax’ on residential properties worth more than £2 million. In this observation, IFS researchers explain why there are better alternatives to both of these policies that would have similar distributional effects.
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Contribution to the ESRC publication 'Re-igniting Growth'
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As Chancellor George Osborne prepares for his keynote statement on fiscal policy and the economy the IFS Green Budget assesses some of the issues he will have to deal with.
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Chapter published in the IFS Green Budget 2013
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Presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget, 6 February 2013
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Presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget, 6 February 2013
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The IFS Green Budget, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is published today.
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Presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget, 6 February 2013
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Chapter published in the IFS Green Budget 2013
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Chapter published in the IFS Green Budget 2013
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Chapter published in the IFS Green Budget 2013
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Chapter published in the IFS Green Budget 2013
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Chapter published in the Green Budget 2013
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Chapter published in the Green Budget 2013
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Chapter from the Green Budget 2013
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Presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget, 6 February 2013
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Presentation given at the launch of the IFS Green Budget, 6 February 2013
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In October last year, the government announced a significant change to its plan to localise Council Tax Benefit starting in April 2013. Why was such a significant change announced to a policy two years after it was first announced and less than six months before councils will have to implement it?
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Contribution by Paul Johnson to Sunday Times article on how to kick-start the economy.
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This article considers the phenomenon of income inequality.
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In this pre-released Green Budget chapter, IFS researchers address 'Productivity Puzzles'.
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In a new paper published today, IFS researchers address these Productivity Puzzles.
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Paper given at the Cardiff Business School, Wednesday 30th January 2013
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Presentation given at the Unversity of Bath on 24th January 2013
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22 January 2013 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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Today the Government will publish a White Paper detailing plans to replace the current Basic State Pension and State Second Pension with a single state pension. The proposed reforms would be a welcome simplification of the current rather complex rules, particularly in the short run, but they also imply a reduction in the state pensions that most people born after around 1970 can expect to receive from the state. This cut in the generosity of pension benefits for currently young people will help reduce public spending on pensioners in the longer-run as pressures from an ageing population intensify. Reducing state support will also increase the incentives for younger cohorts to save privately for their retirement.
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The Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill proposes to cap the annual increases in most working-age benefits at 1% in cash terms in 2014-15 and 2015-16, in addition to the 1% cap on increases already confirmed for 2013-14. This observation examines the effects of this proposal on incomes and work incentives, and puts this in the broader context of trends during the recession and subsequent fiscal tightening
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On Monday, Child Benefit will effectively become an income-related benefit for the first time. This observation reviews the key features of this new policy, highlights unaddressed issues regarding its operation in the long run, and considers how it will fit into the wider welfare system.
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21 December 2012 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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This chapter forms part of a book that analyses the impact of the Great Recession on household incomes and how the major economic downturn has affected how well-off people are.
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The government has committed itself to raising the share of revenues from green taxes over this Parliament. On its own definition of what constitutes a ‘green tax’, the pledge is on course to be met with ease. Alternative definitions of green taxes based on international convention, however, suggest that the pledge will be missed. We argue that such pledges are not a good guide to a government’s environmental credentials, and green tax policy should be justified by environmental issues rather than an arbitrary revenue target.
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Last week marked the 70th anniversary of the Beveridge report. Today’s social security system bears almost no resemblance to the one he envisaged. His ambition for a system of social insurance in which benefits would be paid in return for contributions to those experiencing unemployment, sickness or old age did not prove robust to changes in the economy, in demography and in the labour market. Other benefits, especially means-tested benefits, have been layered on top of the original social insurance benefits to create a system which is too complex and, at times, incoherent.
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Article published in the Independent on Sunday, 2 December 2012
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Presentation given at the House of Commons on 2 December 2012
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This report examines a range of quantitative evidence to shed light on how current older cohorts of defined contribution (DC) pension fund holders are approaching and deadline with retirement and annuitisation.
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The Home Office today released a consultation on policies aimed at reducing the social costs associated with alcohol consumption. The headline-grabbing proposal is a 45p minimum unit price for alcohol in England and Wales. We find the policy would have a significant impact, affecting almost six in ten off-licence alcohol units. However, it would be preferable to establish a price floor for alcohol through a restructured alcohol tax system in which tax is related to alcohol content more directly and retailers are banned from selling alcohol at less than the tax due.
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In October the Office for National Statistics announced a consultation on possible reforms to the way in which one measure of inflation used in the UK, the Retail Prices Index, is calculated. This observation discusses what the proposed changes are and highlights that they could have far-reaching consequences.
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21 November 2012 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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Presentation given at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies Conference: 'The value and use of cohort studies' on 20 November 2012
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These are the slides and audio recording of the IFS 2012 annual lecture by Andrew Dilnot CBE.
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This article argues that it is hard to find a coherent question to which reduced tax rates for the self-employed and small companies are the best answer.
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The savings will take a long time to be realised: only about 35,000 workless families have a third child each year
Article published in the Independent 26 October 2012 |
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Paper given at the 15th Annual Research Conference of De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam
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In a ministerial statement last week the government announced a significant change to its policy to localise Council Tax Benefit (CTB) from next April. In this observation we ask why such a significant change has been announced to a policy two years after it was first announced, less than six months before councils will have to implement it and after many have already consulted on the structure of proposed schemes.
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19 October 2012 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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This presentation was delivered on 18 October 2012 at an ESRC conference, 'Social mobility and Equality: early years, education and transition to the labour market'.
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In his speech to the Conservative party conference today, the Chancellor of the Exchequer again stated an intention to reduce welfare expenditure by a further £10 billion per year by 2016–17. In this observation, IFS researchers analyse the suggested cuts. |
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Spending by Welsh unitary authorities (UAs) is set to be 8.0% lower per person this year than in 2009-10 in real terms. Despite this significant cut the majority of the cuts implied by Government spending plans are still to come
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This report examines cuts made to expenditure in Wales and considers some scenarios for how much local authorities may have to spend in the period up to 2020-1.
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The Government’s controversial reforms to higher education funding - involving an increase in the cap on tuition fees to £9,000 per year and the removal of most direct funding for universities - have this month been implemented. However, the new system is substantially more progressive than its predecessor, as the richest graduates are likely to repay ten times as much as the poorest, and would even pay back more than the value of what they borrowed. Here we summarise IFS research assessing who wins and who loses from these reforms.
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On Monday, a major reform of workplace pensions in the UK will start to be rolled out. The majority of employees who work for large private sector companies will - for the first time - find themselves into an employer-sponsored pension scheme. IFS researchers examine the possible impact of this reform, due to be rolled out to cover all employers by February 2018.
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As the economy still refuses to respond to the chancellor's policies, should he breach his fiscal rules in the Autumn Statement?
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21 September 2012 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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Presentation given for the Wesminster Education Forum, 12 September 2012
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This article explains the proposals set out in the Mirrlees Review
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It has been reported that the education secretary is planning radical reforms to GCSEs in England. With this year's GCSE results out tomorrow, IFS researchers examine the desirability of these potential reforms and whether they would actually represent a substantial change compared with the current system. The evidence also raises a third and more fundamental question: what are GCSEs for?
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21 August 2012 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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These evaluation reports analyse the impact, delivery and value for money of a two-year pilot that tested two different approaches to extending access to free school meals (FSM).
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When all primary school pupils in Newham and Durham were offered free school meals, attainment levels rose. Pupils in these areas made between 4 and 8 weeks more progress over a two year period than similar pupils in other areas.
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20 July 2012 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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IFS analysis of this month's public finance figures.
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There is growing interest in how behavioural economics can be used effectively by policymakers. This observation considers some of the broad implications of behavioural insights for tax and benefit policy, drawing on new IFS research which explores the issues for particular aspects of policy in this area.
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This commentary gives a detailed examination of the behavioural insights for tax and benefit policy.
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How rich are you and your household? Most people think they are towards ‘the middle’ of the distribution, but this obviously can’t be true for everyone. The IFS has used the latest data on household incomes to help you work out where you are in the income distribution.
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The OBR's second fiscal sustainability report, published today, reminds us of the significant challenges which we face as a result of the spending pressures created by population ageing and a likely loss of tax revenues from motoring and north sea oil and gas companies. We need to respond to this analysis by planning now for the changes to spending and taxes that will be required.
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Official figures published today show, for the first time, estimated spending outturns by Whitehall departments for 2011-12. Despite most seeing their budgets cut between 2010-11 and 2011-12, Whitehall departments have underspent their allocations by an estimated £5.3 billion. In this observation we set out which departments did not spend their allocations.
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In this video, Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, provides an outlook on the consequences of three different scenarios for NHS and social care funding over the next decade.
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The Home Office have unveiled their alcohol strategy to reduce excess alcohol consumption. Notably, it includes a proposal to introduce a minimum price per alcohol unit in England and Wales, suggesting 40p as a likely rate. Analysing the detailed off-licence alcohol purchase data of more than 19,000 households, this observation argues that the policy would be a very significant intervention.
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21 March 2012 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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The paper examines how individuals respond to complex decision-making environments - in particular, whether up-front financial incentives are an effective policy lever to change behaviour.
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While debate about tax reform is always welcome, piecemeal reform in response to political pressure has a habit of creating instability and coming back to bite the government that introduced it.
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Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at the IFS, explores the options available to the Chancellor in his 2012 Budget.
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The Government has an ambition to increase the income tax personal allowance to £10,000 by the end of this Parliament. James Browne investigates how much it would cost the Government to reach this ambition, who would benefit and what the economic impact might be.
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This Briefing Note gives an overview of the tax and benefit reforms currently planned for the coming financial year and their likely impact on household incomes.
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As background to the Chancellor's Budget on 21st March, IFS today publishes a summary of recent analysis looking at the likely evolution of household incomes over the next few years and, in particular, how they are likely to be affected by tax and benefit changes that are currently planned for 2012-13.
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We seek to identify what makes a good tax system for an open and developed economy in the 21st century and suggest how the UK tax system could be reformed to move in that direction.
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This presentation was delivered to the Independent Scientific Committee on Drugs, February 2012.
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As Chancellor George Osborne prepares for his keynote statement on fiscal policy and the economy the IFS Green Budget assesses some of the issues he will have to deal with.
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Oral evidence given to Scottish Parliament Health and Sport Select Committee: transcript.
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Oral evidence given to Scottish Parliament Health and Sport Select Committee: video.
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21 December 2011 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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Earlier this month the European Commission outlined proposals aimed at making the EU VAT system simpler, more efficient and more robust. If fully realised, complying with VAT procedures, particularly when trading across borders, would be considerably simpler, and the system should be more robust to fraud: hence, the plans represent a genuine improvement. However, significant problems like the plethora of goods and services not subject to the full rate of VAT look set to remain, despite efforts to discourage their use.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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13 December 2011 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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These slides were delivered as part of the IFS public economics lectures 2011.
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Average UK household income has almost doubled in real terms over the past forty years. We document and analyse the factors that have contributed to this growth.
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These slides were presented to the Office of Fair Trading (OFT).
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This presentation was given at a seminar organised by the Nuffield Foundation to discuss the funding of social care reform.
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The UN Climate Change Conference begins in Durban, South Africa, on the 28th November. One of its primary aims is to reach agreement on ways to reduce carbon emissions. Good policy is required to achieve reductions efficiently, including a consistent (preferably global) carbon price. However, a consistent price does not currently exist. Within the UK, there are a myriad of policies in place which create substantial divergences in effective carbon prices. We have some way to go to get the basics right for an efficient national policy; the global challenges will be much greater.
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The UK Government has reformed beer duties and plans to ban the sale of alcohol in England and Wales for less than the total tax liable. These changes are minor: each affects just 1% of off-licence alcohol units sold. In Scotland, the Government has introduced a minimum alcohol pricing Bill which, if introduced across Britain, would directly affect the vast majority of off-licence drinkers and could transfer large sums to alcohol producers and retailers. But it is not clear that a minimum price is particularly well targeted and it may be preferable to increase drink prices by raising taxes and transferring money to the national coffers.
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We use detailed data recording off-licence purchases to assess which types of alcohol products, retailers and consumers would be most affected by reforms.
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This work on school funding reform was presented at the National Fair Funding Conference in York.
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Figures released today show that corporate tax receipts fell by 6.9% in October this year, compared to the same month last year. This observation highlights the recent trends in corporate tax revenues and discusses what is known about companies' tax payments.
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22 November 2011 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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This presentation was delivered at an IMF event, "Tax Reform in the U.K. and the U.S: Lessons from the Mirrlees Review".
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This presentation was delivered at an IMF event,
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This presentation was delivered at an IMF event,
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This presentation was delivered at an IMF event,
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In this Briefing Note, we describe the options for a national funding formula for schools and examine how different options would affect the finances of different schools or areas of the country.
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IFS researchers have provided the first detailed assessment of the Government's ambitious plans to reform school funding in England.
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These slides were delivered at an IFS Briefing on the National Funding Formula, 18 November 2011.
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This appendix accompanies IFS Briefing Note 122.
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In a speech made yesterday, the leader of the Labour party, Ed Miliband, accused the coalition's corporate tax policies of "rigging" the tax system against manufacturing and long term investment. This observation discusses how the package of measures will alter the tax burden and affect the UK's competitiveness.
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New research shows that month of birth can impact a range of skills, behaviours and outcomes of young people growing up in England today.
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The aim of this report is to identify the effect of month of birth on a range of key skills and behaviours amongst young people growing up in England today.
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This report addresses some of the key issues relating to young people's subject and course choices.
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In new figures released today, IFS researchers estimate that total public spending on education in the UK will fall by over 13% in real terms between 2010-11 and 2014-15.
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In this Briefing Note, we produce new estimates of the likely cuts to overall public spending on education in the UK up to 2014-15.
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This paper examines trends in household consumption and saving behaviour in each of the last three recessions in the UK.
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New research published today by the IFS throws more light on the nature of the recent recession and its impact on households.
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The inflation figures for September 2011 released this week by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are important, because they affect how the tax and benefit system will look in 2012-13.
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Today the Office for National Statistics published the annual rates of inflation to September. These numbers are particularly important: September inflation figures are used to determine increases in personal tax and benefit parameters and public sector pensions at the beginning of the next financial year.
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This Commentary presents forecasts of relative and absolute income poverty in the UK among children and working-age adults for each year between 2010-11 and 2015-16, and for 2020-21.
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A new forecast of income poverty among children and working-age adults in the UK has been published today by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
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This presentation was delivered at the 2011 IFS Annual Lecture by Esther Duflo, MIT.
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Randomised trials have helped to shape policy in the developing world. Drawing on examples, we argue that it's time the UK made better use of this important tool for evidence-based policymaking.
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21 September 2011 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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Yesterday the International Monetary Fund published its latest Fiscal Monitor, which surveys public finance developments across the world and updates their fiscal projections. Here we look at some of the main fiscal projections and take stock of how the planned fiscal consolidation in the UK compares to those currently planned in other advanced economies.
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China has experienced unprecedented investment in skills and science, which has resulted in rapid growth in innovative outputs. New evidence suggests that Chinese inventors have the capacity to engage in research at the technology frontier. Such trends have fuelled widespread concerns over Western economies' ability to maintain their dominance in knowledge creation and high skill employment. However, innovation is not a zero-sum game; the success of China need not be at the expense of the West.
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In this short note, we examine the incentives that systems for financing special educational needs can create for different individuals.
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19 August 2011 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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A series of papers, published today in a special issue of Fiscal Studies on measuring school effectiveness, highlight some of the key issues that policymakers must consider.
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CAYT researchers presented evidence on the link between young people's education and labour market choices and economic growth.
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As a proportion of the total, health has nearly doubled from 10% to 18% of spending.
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This analysis finds that the shape of the state today is very different from that of 30 years ago and, going forward, spending on health, pensions and long term care is set to rise fast.
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This presentation was delivered at the Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
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21 July 2011 |
Public Finance Press Releases |
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New research published today by researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and funded by the Nuffield Foundation, finds little or no evidence that marriage itself has any effect on children's social or cognitive development.
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Children born to married parents achieve better cognitive and social outcomes, on average. This report asks why this is so.
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How rich do you think you are, compared to everyone else in the UK? Do you feel pretty well-off, rather poor, or just 'in the middle'? It's a simple enough question, but you may be surprised by the answer. Today, the IFS launches its first ever iPhone app, which estimates where in the income distribution you and your household fit in.
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The Office for Budget Responsibility's first 'Fiscal Sustainability Report' - published today - sets out some of the long-term challenges facing the UK's public finances. Demographic pressures alone could raise spending by £80 billion in today's terms by 2060, with a particularly striking increase required in health spending. Tax revenues, especially from oil and petrol, are also under pressure. Long term fiscal sustainability will require hard choices even after the unprecedented fiscal retrenchment planned for the next few years.
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Today the Environmental Audit Committee published a report focusing on the implications of Budget 2011 for environmental taxes. One of the key recommendations was that in order to 'build trust and acceptance of environmental taxes', consideration should be given to 'greater use of at least partial hypothecation of revenues from environmental taxes [for environmental ends].' We argue that earmarking revenues in this way would be at best meaningless and at worst inefficient, and that a case for increased green taxes ought to be argued on its own merits.
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These slides were presented to the All Parliamentary Group on Social Mobility.
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This presentation was delivered at the 'Conference on Macroeconomic Policy' held at the Murat Sertel Center for Advanced Economic Studies, Istanbul.
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This document is a literature review commissioned by the Department for Education into the role for, and implications of, payment by results in public service delivery.
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This column asks whether offering tax breaks - called Patent Boxes after the box companies must tick on their tax forms - will lead to a race to the bottom across Europe and who, if anyone, benefits.
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In this paper, we show some simple ways in which the government could examine the impact of tax and benefit reforms on men and women using household level data that it already has available.
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The Equalities Act 2010 places an obligation on the government to give 'due consideration' to the effects of its policies on gender inequalities. The IFS was asked by the Fawcett society to consider ways in which our tax and benefit microsimulation model, TAXBEN could be used as part of an assessment of the separate impact of Budget measures on men and women. We have today published some simple analysis that does this.
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This Commentary analyses recent trends in household spending, with a focus on domestic fuel and water, and examines the impact of changes in the price of these goods on household inflation.
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We study the UK Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) and find robust evidence of a behavioural effect of the labelling.
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This presentation was delivered at the IFS briefing 'Cash by any other name? evidence on labelling from the UK Winter Fuel Payment', 8 June 2011.
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We find evidence that the poorest of older households are unable to smooth spending over the worst temperature shocks.
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This is the full report of the independent evaluation of the ECaR programme.
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A package of early literacy interventions has been found to improve significantly the reading and writing skills of young children who struggle to learn to read.
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This document describes the UK tax and benefit system between April 1990 and April 2010, as implemented in FORTAX.
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These slides were delivered at the IFS Briefing 'Poverty and Inequality in the UK: 2011'.
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Today the IFS published a detailed examination of what happened to living standards, to poverty and to inequality over Labour's 13 years in office. Amongst other findings, this shows that income inequality rose under Labour. Much of the explanation for this can be found in the fast growth in the incomes of the very richest, and in particular of the incomes of just the top one or two percent. These very high earners have seen their incomes pull away from those of the large majority.
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The HBAI figures tell a story of pain delayed, but not pain avoided.
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In this Commentary, we assess the changes to average incomes, inequality and poverty that have occurred since 1997, with a particular focus on the changes that have occurred in the latest year of data (2009-10).
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These slides were delivered at the IFS Briefing 'Poverty and Inequality in the UK: 2011'.
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This presentation was delivered on 3rd May 2011 at Bogazici University, Istanbul.
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Until recently microfinance - the extension of very small loans to those in poverty designed to spur entrepreneurship - was cheered as an excellent policy to alleviate poverty. But more recently such policies have been viewed less favourably. What does the evidence show on the effectiveness of such schemes, and how can they be reformed to operate better?
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In this article we assess and compare long-term adult socioeconomic status impacts from having experienced psychological and physical health problems in childhood.
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On Monday the Government published its long advertised Green Paper on state pension reform. Much press speculation has suggested that this would lead to a flat rate pension of £140 a week for all new pensioners from 2015. But the commitments that the Government have made not to increase public spending on pensions and to honour pension rights that have already been accrued means that introducing such a pension will not be possible on anything like this timetable.
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This presentation focuses on the impact of tax and benefit changes announced in the Budget and previously on households in London.
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This government, alongside most of its predecessors, is concerned about social mobility. As the coalition government prepares to launch its own strategy for tackling social mobility, recent work at IFS exploring the literature on social mobility has highlighted some important conclusions that the government would be wise to bear in mind.
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This presentation was delivered at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland on 31st March.
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This note provides projections of relative and absolute income poverty among children and working-age adults in the UK for each year between 2010-11 and 2013-14.
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This presentation was delivered on 30th March 2011, at an Empirical Legal Research seminar, at the School of Law, University of Edinburgh
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Yesterday, the Government announced the details of a new bursary scheme to replace the Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA). The funding for this will total £180m, of which £15m is reserved for a £1,200 annual grant for vulnerable children. The remaining £165m will form a discretionary fund that schools and colleges will distribute to students deemed to have the greatest need. In this observation, we analyse how this fund could be structured and its potential impact on students.
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The estimated impacts of childhood psychological health problems on adult economic life are severe and substantially larger than the impacts of a wide range of childhood physical health problems.
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These slides were delivered at the IFS post-Budget briefing 2011.
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Paul Johnson's opening remarks, delivered at the IFS post-Budget briefing 2011.
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These slides were delivered at the IFS post-Budget briefing 2011.
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These slides were delivered at the IFS post-Budget briefing 2011.
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These slides were delivered at the IFS post-Budget briefing 2011.
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The IFS' initial response to Chancellor George Osborne's 2011 Budget statement.
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We estimate that households are about 6% worse off than they might have expected had incomes risen in the normal way.
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IFS estimates that in the three years from 2008 to 2011 real household incomes will have fallen by 1.6%, or £360 a year.
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The final report of Lord Hutton's Independent Public Service Pensions Commission has been published today. The proposed reforms would improve the structure of public service pensions considerably and some elements would certainly lead to some public sector workers receiving substantially less generous pensions. But the overall generosity of the schemes, and therefore the cost to the taxpayer, will depend on key decisions left for the Government to make.
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Rapid increases in pump prices have sparked renewed debate on the level of fuel duties, with calls for the Chancellor to cancel April's planned real-terms increase in the forthcoming Budget. There is also continued speculation about the prospect of a "fair fuel stabiliser". What are the facts and how should we assess these proposals?
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This presentation was delivered at an ONS labour market statistics conference.
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This presentation was given as part of the CASE Social Exclusion Seminar series.
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This presentation was given as part of the CASE Social Exclusion Seminar series.
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Today the Office for National Statistics published its inflation figures for the year to January 2011. We find that although today's figures show that the headline rate of inflation is high, there is relatively little variation in average inflation rates across household types.
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As Chancellor George Osborne prepares for his keynote statement on fiscal policy and the economy the IFS Green Budget assesses some of the issues he will have to deal with.
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The Universal Credit will dramatically change the welfare system for working-age adults. If successful, it will make the welfare system more effective and coherent. But it will create winners and losers in the process.
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This presentation was delivered at the IFS Briefing 'Universal Credit: a preliminary analysis' on Wednesday 12 January 2011.
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This presentation was delivered at the IFS Briefing 'Universal Credit: a preliminary analysis' on Wednesday 12 January 2011.
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This Briefing Note analyses Universal Credit as set out in the government's White Paper, Universal Credit: Welfare that Works.
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This presentation was delivered at the IFS Briefing 'Universal Credit: a preliminary analysis' on Wednesday 12 January 2011.
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This presentation was delivered at the American Economic Association (AEA) meeting in Denver, January 2011.
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13 December 2010 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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13 December 2010 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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13 December 2010 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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13 December 2010 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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13 December 2010 |
Public Economics Lectures |
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Last week, the Minister of State for Universities and Science, David Willetts, announced the Government's proposals for higher education funding in England, in response to last month's publication of the Browne Review. IFS released some initial reaction to these proposals last week. Here we quantify the main implications of that announcement.
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In July 2010, the Department for Education launched a consultation on school funding arrangements in 2011-12, and their plans for a pupil premium from September 2011 onwards. This briefing note contains the response of IFS researchers to this consultation.
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IFS analysis shows that schools in more deprived areas may receive a smaller 'pupil premium' than similarly-deprived schools in more affluent areas.
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Lord Browne's recommendations for higher education funding have provoked controversy. The potential sharp increase in tuition fees has grabbed the headlines, but another proposed measure has also received considerable attention: increasing the interest rate on student loans to 2.2% above RPI inflation. There have also been criticisms of the review's alleged lack of focus on the potential for a graduate tax. In this Observation, we explore both issues in some detail.
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Current and future governments are committed to reducing the rate of relative income child poverty in the UK to 10% by 2020-21. This paper looks in detail at the progress made towards this goal under the previous Labour administrations.
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Graduates may expect to pay on average at least £5,300 more for their degree, according to analysis by IFS researchers. However, the lowest-earning graduates would be protected from the burden of increased debt and would actually pay less than under the current system.
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Lord Hutton's interim report on public service pensions recommended an increase in employee contributions in the short term. Suggestions for more fundamental reforms of the pensions will be made in the Commission's final report next spring. Any such recommendations should consider how cost effectively public service pensions attract and retain the desired calibre of staff in the public sector and whether any reforms to the structure of the schemes should be accompanied by reductions to the average generosity.
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The Government has announced that child benefit will be withdrawn from families containing a higher-rate taxpayer from April 2013. This would save around £1 billion a year, but the way it will be withdrawn looks unfair to some families, and will seriously distort work incentives for some families with children.
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This presentation was given at the Oxbridge Public Economics Lectures in October 2010
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The consultation period on the Government's ideas for fundamental reforms to the benefits system ends on 1 October. Integrating all benefits and tax credits should create a system which is simpler for both claimants and government, but the Government will need to explain much more clearly how a Universal Credit would work and how much different groups of recipients will get if we are to have an informed debate on its merits.
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This paper compares patterns of private school attendance in the UK and Australia.
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We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of moving to a more integrated benefit and tax system, and then discuss issues relating to strengthening work incentives.
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This paper looks at the impact of private school fees and school quality on the demand for private secondary schooling in the UK.
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This presentation was delivered at a Daycare Trust seminar, September 16 2010.
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These slides were delivered at the Lincome College Applied Microeconometrics Conference at the University of Oxford.
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This Briefing Note discusses how much scope there is to raise revenue from the very rich by increasing income tax rates and assesses in detail the amount of revenue that is likely to be raised by the government's proposed reforms.
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The Government's plans to raise income tax rates for people on incomes above £150,000 are very unlikely to raise the revenue that it has predicted, according to IFS research published today.
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This paper surveys the potential benefits of integration and the potential obstacles.
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We examine the 'home bias' of international knowledge spillovers as measured by the speed of patent citations.
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In this paper, we identify methodological differences and similarities in the measurement of wealth using survey data constructed for different purposes in the United Kingdom and England.
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This document provides an overview of the current system of local government finance in the UK.
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Government's recent changes to Higher Education student support
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This paper presents a tour of welfare reform in the UK since the last change of government, summarising the most important changes in active labour market policies, and in measures intended to strengthen financial incentives to work.
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This paper uses revealed preference inequalities to provide tight nonparametric bounds on consumer responses to price changes.
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This paper uses revealed preference inequalities to provide tight nonparametric bounds on consumer responses to price changes.
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This Commentary provides an update on trends in poverty and inequality in Great Britain for 2005.
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How does entry affect productivity growth of incumbents? In this paper we exploit policy reforms in the United Kingdom that changed entry conditions by opening up the U.K. economy during the 1980s and panel data on British establishments to shed light on this question.
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This study analyses the macro-economic impact of product market reforms undertaken in the European Union over the 1980s and 1990s by examining a large number of regulations and reforms across EU countries.
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In the run-up to the 2004 Spending Review, IFS has written a short briefing note, which considers the options for public spending during the years of the review (2005-06 to 2007-08), in light of what has already been announced and what we know about the government's priorities and past spending decisions.
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This Briefing Note looks at the potential for the introduction of a 'fat tax' into the UK in an effort to reduce the growing prevalence of obesity in Britain. This Briefing Note looks at trends in UK obesity and examines evidence on eating habits and exercise in order to see whether trends here can account for what we see happening to obesity. We go on to review some of the key economic reasons behind why we might be concerned about obesity and why we might consider there to be a case for government intervention. We also discuss how food is currently taxed and the various ways in which a 'fat tax' might be introduced, looking at particular issues the government might need to address should it wish to introduce one. We finish by presenting some simple analysis of a hypothetical 'fat tax' in terms of how it might impact differently on the rich and the poor.
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This report sets out what has happened to income and expenditure inequality in the 1990s and early 2000s, comparing the changes to previous decades. Although income is very often used for assessing living standards in this country, spending is often more informative, because many people can choose to borrow, save or run down their savings at any given time, in order to adjust their standard of living.
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This paper was presented at a seminar organised by the Economic and Social Research Council. It asks whether it is possible to design a pension system that can guarantee financial security to individuals, employers and to the state simultaneously.
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This Briefing Note assesses the likelihood that the government will meet its child poverty target in 200405 in the light of decisions made in Pre-Budget Report (PBR) 2003. It updates the analysis presented in What Do the Child Poverty Targets Mean for the Child Tax Credit? An Update, IFS Briefing Note 41, which was written before PBR 2003. We agree with the assessment in PBR 2003 that the government should comfortably meet its target measuring incomes before housing costs (BHC). It also concludes that the government is on course to just hit its target measuring incomes after housing costs (AHC). |
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On 16th February Oliver Letwin, the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, outlined the Conservative Party's preliminary public spending proposals in the form of a "Medium Term Expenditure Strategy". We summarise and analyse the key points in this briefing note.
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The Government's plans for reforming Higher Education (HE) funding have been a source of great controversy. Much of this controversy has been focused on what the reforms will mean for students from different family income backgrounds, and on the levels of debt they may need to incur to go to higher education. Concern has also been raised about how graduates will be affected by these debt repayments throughout their working lives, as well as whether or not the funds raised will improve the situation of universities significantly. This Briefing Note addresses these issues, as well as describing the evolution of the proposed reforms to Higher Education funding in recent months. In doing this, we set out and explain the system which is most likely to be implemented if the HE Bill is passed, and discuss the ways in which students, graduates, and universities are likely to be affected. We also consider the possible effects on the taxpayer.
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This paper summarises the economic literature on modelling take-up, with a focus on income-related or work-related benefits or tax credits.
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this paper uses a structural model of labour supply and programme participation to show the impact of a reform to in-work support (Working Families Tax Credit) on both labour supply and programme participation (or take-up).
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Analysis of the Chancellor's Pre-Budget Report.
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This Briefing Note provides an overview of public spending in the UK. It describes the components of public spending and examines trends in expenditure.
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This paper attempts to uncover the effects of a welfare-to-work programme, that acts as a wage subsidy, on wage growth by exploiting an expansion to this welfare programme in the UK.
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Many people in the UK do not claim benefits to which they seem to be entitled. Amongst those of working-age, take-up rates for Family Credit.
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The government has a target for child poverty to fall to 3.1 million by 2004-05, measured by the number of children in households with less than 60% median income after housing costs. The latest data showed that 3.8 million children (30% of children in Britain) were in poverty in 2001-02 on this definition. To help achieve the target, increases to means-tested benefits and tax credits need to take effect in April 2004, and therefore need to be announced in the forthcoming Pre-Budget Report.
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This paper examines the corporation tax forecasting techniques used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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In August 2003 the government issued a further consultation document on reform to the corporation tax system.This consultation continues a process that started in July 2001 with a consultation document on large business taxation, and which appears to have become an annual exercise. This Briefing Note points out that this annual round of reform proposals does little to promote a stable environment for business investment decisions. New proposals on transfer pricing and finance leasing will add to business costs.
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On 6 October 2003, the pension credit replaced the minimum income guarantee as the principal means-tested benefit for families containing an individual aged 60 or over. This Briefing Note examines the impact of this reform.
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The child tax credit and working tax credit were introduced in April 2003. When fully operational, the child tax credit will represent the majority of government financial support for children. It is designed to simplify the system of financial support for parents, and provides support that is means-tested against family income. The working tax credit is designed to make work more financially attractive. It means that people with or without children in work and on a low income may receive extra help from the State. This Briefing Note looks at the changes that have been made and asks why the new tax credits have been introduced, how they work, the cost and distributional impact, the impact on work incentives and what levels of take-up we might expect.
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This briefing note is provided as evidence to the Work and Pensions Select Committee as to whether childcare could be provided for all parents who need it to help them to work. It looks at the ways in which this could be achieved.
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In 1997, the Labour Party was elected in the UK with few explicitly articulated ideas about social security reforms. This paper reviews the large number of subsequent reforms to social security, and argues that some consistent themes have emerged.
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In this note, the authors examine how we might measure the fiscal stance in terms of the scale of the public deficit. They show the path the gap between state income and expenditure has taken since 1946. The paper also tries to isolate the effects of government policy as opposed to the economic cycle.
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This paper investigates the relationship between product market competition (PMC) and innovation.
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In Autumn 2001, the government finalised its proposals for the introduction of the Pension Credit in 2003. Since the initial plans, the Government has significantly changed the way in which pensioners' savings will be treated by the new benefit, and has also decided to couple the reform to significant increases in the generosity of housing benefit for pensioners. This paper updates earlier IFS research evaluating these modified proposals, asking who is likely to gain, and assessing the likely effect on pensioner poverty, on savings incentives and on the public finances. We conclude that modifications to the reform leave the policy better able to reward saving and fitting in better with the rest of UK pension policy. In the longer-term, however, there large questions about the eventual cost and effects of the reform that remain unanswered. |
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In the November 2000 Pre-Budget Report, the government announced a major range of measures for pensioners. Some come into operation in April 2001, while others follow in 2002 and 2003. The most important aspects of the package comprised: above-inflation increases in the retirement pension; substantially above-inflation increases in the means-tested minimum income guarantee (MIG); and the introduction of a new element into the means-tested benefit system for pensioners, known as the pension credit. Overall, the package means the government will pay over 4 billion a year extra to pensioners (2000 prices) by 200304. It represents a very substantial redistribution in favour of pensioners, and particularly those on low incomes.
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