Carl Emmerson

Carl Emmerson

Deputy Director


MSc Economics, Birkbeck, University of London, 1999
BSc Economics (1st Class), London School of Economics and Political Science, 1996

Carl is Deputy Director of the IFS and Programme Director of their work on direct taxes and welfare. He is an editor of the annual IFS Green Budget. His recent research includes analysis of the impact of the financial crisis and association recession, and the Government's response, on the UK's public finances. He has examined the effect of UK pension reforms on the public finances, retirement behaviour, labour market mobility, incentives to save and inequality, and has evaluated the large scale pilots of the Education Maintenance Allowance, the Pathways-to-Work reforms to incapacity benefits and the Saving Gateway matched savings vehicle. He previously served as a specialist advisor to the House of Commons Work and Pensions Select Committee.

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Autumn Statement 2015: the first test for the Chancellor's welfare cap

| Observations

As George Osborne prepares for next week’s combined Autumn Statement and Spending Review announcement, figures released today by the Office for National Statistics suggest that he is on course to slightly overshoot the latest official forecast for borrowing this year of £69.5 billion. To meet his plan to cut borrowing thereafter and achieve a surplus by 2019–20, Mr Osborne faces two big challenges next week. The first is to divide up the shrinking budget for day-to-day spending by departments, while continuing to protect many areas of spending. The second is to remain within his welfare cap while taking on board the recent House of Lords motion that he must reconsider the tax credit cuts he announced in July.

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