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July 2008


In this issue

Alistair Darling is reported to be taking his summer break on the tiny island of Great Bernera in the Outer Hebrides, which is about as far away as one can get from the Treasury without leaving the country. You can understand the Chancellor’s desire to get away from it all, after a year of tax policy U-turns and ‘clarifications’ capped by speculation that he will be forced to abandon at least one of Gordon Brown’s cherished fiscal rules. The continued focus on tax policy and fiscal management has kept the IFS very much in the public eye since the Budget and promises a hectic run-up to what is likely to be a very controversial Pre-Budget Report in the autumn.

In addition to helping guide the media, parliamentarians and the general public through the twists and turns of the policy debate, we have also been contributing long-term thinking on tax design in particular. Last week we published a set of reform proposals for VAT and other indirect taxes, prepared for the Mirrlees Review of the UK tax system. It points out that moving to a uniform rate of VAT would cut compliance and administration costs, interfere less with people’s spending decisions and raise billions in revenue that could be spent cutting other taxes (even after compensating poorer households for the removal of existing reduced and zero rates) The full set of Mirrlees background studies is now available on our website. Work is now underway on the final report which will be published early next year.

Robert Chote
Director

 

Recent publications

Working papers
Decomposing changes in income risk using consumption data
Richard Blundell, Hamish Low and Ian Preston, November 2008
'Klin'-ing up: effects of Polish tax reforms on those in and on those out
Leszek Morawski and Michal Myck, November 2008
Separability and public finance
Stéphane Gauthier and Guy Laroque, November 2008
Briefing notes and reports
The UK public finances: ready for recession?
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Gemma Tetlow, October 2008
The inflation experience of older households
Andrew Leicester, Cormac O'Dea and Zoë Oldfield, October 2008
Options for Tax Credit reform
Mike Brewer, James Browne and David Phillips, September 2008

Research news

English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)

The third wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing was launched on 16 July. The study follows the lives of a representative sample of people aged over 50, interviewing them in detail every two years to gather data about their health, wealth, relationships and social lives. Authors from IFS have collaborated with experts in public health and epidemiology, psychiatry and social research. The report looking at the most recent data highlights issues including the trend for older people to keep on working until later and links between wealth, health and mortality.

Mirrlees Review: reforming the tax system for the 21st century

Much of the work on the Mirrlees Review is nearing completion. Contributed articles covering different aspects of the tax system will be gathered together in a volume to be published by Oxford University Press; pre-press versions will be made available online. Those available so far include: means testing and tax rates on earnings; labour supply and taxes; the base for direct taxation; taxation of wealth and wealth transfers; taxing corporate income; international capital taxation; taxing small businesses; the effects on consumption and saving of taxing asset returns; administration and compliance; the political economy of tax policy; and environmental taxes. An overview volume will present a picture of coherent tax reform. Both will be published in February 2009.

Recent press releases

Poorest households face highest average inflation rates
14 October 2008
Oldest, poorest pensioners hit hardest by recent increases in inflation
09 October 2008
Simplify VAT to cut costs, raise revenue and help the poor, says study prepared for the Mirrlees Review
31 July 2008
Longitudinal study of ageing shows extended working lives and health and wealth relationship
16 July 2008
Summer birth penalty persists into Higher Education
14 July 2008

 

IFS Annual Lecture 2008:
Vincent Cable MP

In the IFS Annual Lecture, held on 7 July 2008 at Bloomberg, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vincent Cable argued that councils and other registered social landlords should be encouraged to engage in large scale acquisition of houses that cannot be sold in the current depressed housing market, in order to provide homes for the homeless or for those who cannot afford to buy or rent in the private sector. Mr Cable argued that in addition to addressing social need, such a scheme would provide a cash-flow injection to the troubled house-building sector and would help banks cope with the credit crunch.

Vincent Cable's full speech

 

Public finance bulletins

Public finance bulletin: November 2008
November 2008
Public finance bulletin: October 2008
October 2008
Public finance bulletin: September 2008
September 2008
Public finance bulletin: August 2008
August 2008
 
Centre for Microdata Methods and Research

cemmap
news

Recent working papers
Large-sample inference on spatial dependence
Peter Robinson, October 2008
Copula-based nonlinear quantile autoregression
Xiaohong Chen, Roger Koenker and Zhijie Xiao, October 2008
The median is the message: Wilson and Hilferty's reanalysis of C.S. Peirce's experiments on the law of errors
Roger Koenker, October 2008
Courses and other events
Workshop: Unobserved Factor Models
20 - 21 November 2008
Training Course: Policy Evaluation Methods, Barbara Sianesi
03 - 05 December 2008
Training Course: Discrete Choice Modelling, William Greene
14 - 16 January 2009
 

Fiscal Studies

November 2008
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