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Optimal unemployment insurance over business cycle (joint with Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez)
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Date: 12:30 25 May 2011 - 13:45 25 May 2011
Type: Public Economics Seminar
Venue: Institute for Fiscal Studies  [see map]
Price: members: Free; nonmembers: Free

This paper characterizes optimal unemployment insurance over the business cycle in a model in which unemployment stems from matching frictions (in booms) and job rationing (in recessions). Job rationing introduces two effects not captured by previous studies. First, job-search efforts have little effect on aggregate unemployment because the number of jobs available is limited, independently of search and matching. Second, while job-search efforts increase the individual probability of finding a job, they create a negative externality by reducing other jobseekers' probability of finding one of the few available jobs. Both effects are captured by the positive and countercyclical wedge between micro-elasticity and macro-elasticity of unemployment with respect to net reward from work. We derive a simple optimal unemployment insurance formula expressed in terms of those two elasticities and risk aversion. The formula coincides with the classical Baily-Chetty formula only when unemployment is low, and macro- and micro-elasticity are (almost) equal. The formula implies that the generosity of unemployment insurance should be countercyclical. We illustrate this result by simulating optimal unemployment insurance over the business cycle in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated with US data.

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