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Benefit duration, unemployment duration and employment stability: a regression discontinuity approach (with Marco Caliendo and Arne Uhlendorff)
The generosity of the Unemployment Insurance system (UI) plays a central role for the job search behavior of unemployed individuals. Standard search theory predicts that an increase in UI benefit generosity, either in terms of benefit duration or entitlement, has a negative impact on the job search activities of the unemployed increasing their unemployment duration. Despite the disincentive effect of UI on unemployment duration, UI benefit generosity may also increase job quality by allowing individuals to wait for better job offers. In this paper we use a sharp discontinuity in the maximum duration of unemployment benefits in Germany, which increases from 12 to 18 months at the age of 45, to identify the effect of extended benefit duration on unemployment duration and subsequent employment stability, as a measure of job match quality. We find a spike in the unemployment hazard for the unemployed workers with 12 months benefit duration, which occurs close to benefit exhaustion. This is consistent with a number of previous empirical studies, which find spikes in the job finding rates at benefit exhaustion. Regarding subsequent employment, we do not find a significant effect of treatment (receiving longer benefit duration) on the employment duration of those re-employed. Analyzing, however, the employment spells of those re-employed within 10-12 months since entering unemployment, we find that the workers who were eligible for longer benefit duration exhibit a significantly lower employment hazard rate compared to their counterparts with only 12 months of benefit duration. This suggests that the non-treated who exit unemployment close to benefit exhaustion accept jobs that would otherwise reject, while the treated unemployed who receive additional 6 months of insurance only accept jobs that are of better quality and last longer.
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