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IFS is an ESRC Research Centre

 

Green Budget 2008

in collaboration with

The Green Budget 2008 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Jonathan Shaw, and copy-edited by Judith Payne.

It was produced in collaboration with Morgan Stanley and with additional funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS.

You can download the whole document [3937 KB] here. Individual chapters can be downloaded below, also as acrobat files.

*Chapter 1: SUMMARY
 
*Chapter 2: THE PUBLIC FINANCES UNDER LABOUR
2.1 Introduction: Labour's fiscal objectives
2.2 Labour's inheritance
2.3 Labour's record to date
2.4 Performance relative to the Conservatives
2.5 Labour's plans and forecasts
2.6 Uncertainty and the Treasury's fiscal forecasts
2.7 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 3: THE FISCAL RULES AND POLICY FRAMEWORK
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The golden rule
3.3 The sustainable investment rule
3.4 Reforming the rules: a golden opportunity?
 
*Chapter 4: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Recent developments and near-term outlook
4.3 Trend growth and the economic cycle
4.4 The next five years: two scenarios
 
*Chapter 5: GREEN BUDGET PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Short-term projections
5.3 Medium-term prospects
5.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions
5.5 The fiscal rules and the budget judgement
 
*Chapter 6: FUNDING, DEBT MANAGEMENT, AND CREDIT MARKET PROBLEMS
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The likely scale of debt issuance
6.3 Government debt and the money market crisis
6.4 Optimal debt management
6.5 Government policy and the 'credit crunch'
6.6 Mortgages and mortgage financing - the role of indexation
6.7 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 7: PRESSURES ON PUBLIC SPENDING
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Trends in aggregate public spending under Labour
7.3 Trends in key areas of public spending
7.4 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 8: PUBLIC SECTOR PAY AND PENSIONS
8.1 Introduction
8.2 The public sector pay bill and workforce
8.3 Public sector pay trends and levels
8.4 Public sector pensions
8.5 Public sector pay policy and inflation
8.6 Pay review bodies
8.7 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 9: AVIATION TAXES
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Economic principles of aviation taxation
9.3 Air passenger duty
9.4 Aviation duty: illustrative options for reform
9.5 Issues in aviation tax reform
9.6 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 10: CAPITAL GAINS TAX
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Background
10.3 CGT design and the proposed reform
10.4 Managing transition
10.5 The policymaking process
10.6 Conclusion
10.7 Postscript: entrepreneurs' relief
 
*Chapter 11: CORPORATION TAX AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Corporation tax rates and entrepreneurship
11.3 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 12: TAXATION OF COMPANIES' FOREIGN PROFITS
12.1 Introduction
12.2 The current UK system
12.3 Principles guiding the taxation of foreign profits
12.4 The June 2007 proposals
12.5 Implications of the proposed exemption system
12.6 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 13: TAX SIMPLIFICATION
13.1 Introduction
13.2 A 10-yearly simplification cycle?
13.3 Recent 'simplifications' in practice
13.4 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 14: THE IMPACT OF TAX AND BENEFIT REFORMS TO BE IMPLEMENTED IN APRIL 2008
14.1 Introduction
14.2 The changes due in April 2008
14.3 The impact on effective marginal tax rates
14.4 Winners and losers
14.5 The impact of tax and benefit changes since 1997
14.6 Conclusion
 
*APPENDICES
Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2008
ISBN: 978-1-903274-52-1

 

Presentations

Presentations from the Green Budget conference.

The economic outlook
David Miles, Morgan Stanley

Labour's record on the public finances
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Gemma Tetlow, IFS

The public finances going forward
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Gemma Tetlow, IFS

Funding issues and debt management
David Miles and Laurence Mutkin, Morgan Stanley

Public sector pay and pensions
Antoine Bozio and Paul Johnson, IFS

Capital gains tax, Stuart Adam, IFS

Taxation of foreign profits
Malcolm Gammie, Rachel Griffith and Helen Miller, IFS

Aviation taxes
Andrew Leicester and Cormac O'Dea, IFS

Impact of tax and benefit changes taking effect in April 2008
David Philips, IFS

 
 
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