Budgets

Green Budget 2008

in collaboration with

The Green Budget 2008 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Jonathan Shaw, and copy-edited by Judith Payne.

It was produced in collaboration with Morgan Stanley and with additional funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS.

You can download the whole document [3937 KB] here. Individual chapters can be downloaded below, also as acrobat files.

Chapter 1: SUMMARY

Chapter 2: THE PUBLIC FINANCES UNDER LABOUR

2.1 Introduction: Labour's fiscal objectives 2.2 Labour's inheritance 2.3 Labour's record to date 2.4 Performance relative to the Conservatives 2.5 Labour's plans and forecasts 2.6 Uncertainty and the Treasury's fiscal forecasts 2.7 Conclusion

Chapter 3: THE FISCAL RULES AND POLICY FRAMEWORK

3.1 Introduction 3.2 The golden rule 3.3 The sustainable investment rule 3.4 Reforming the rules: a golden opportunity?

Chapter 4: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

4.1 Introduction 4.2 Recent developments and near-term outlook 4.3 Trend growth and the economic cycle 4.4 The next five years: two scenarios

Chapter 5: GREEN BUDGET PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS

5.1 Introduction 5.2 Short-term projections 5.3 Medium-term prospects 5.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions 5.5 The fiscal rules and the budget judgement

Chapter 6: FUNDING, DEBT MANAGEMENT, AND CREDIT MARKET PROBLEMS

6.1 Introduction 6.2 The likely scale of debt issuance 6.3 Government debt and the money market crisis 6.4 Optimal debt management 6.5 Government policy and the 'credit crunch' 6.6 Mortgages and mortgage financing - the role of indexation 6.7 Conclusion

Chapter 7: PRESSURES ON PUBLIC SPENDING

7.1 Introduction 7.2 Trends in aggregate public spending under Labour 7.3 Trends in key areas of public spending 7.4 Conclusion

Chapter 8: PUBLIC SECTOR PAY AND PENSIONS

8.1 Introduction 8.2 The public sector pay bill and workforce 8.3 Public sector pay trends and levels 8.4 Public sector pensions 8.5 Public sector pay policy and inflation 8.6 Pay review bodies 8.7 Conclusion

Chapter 9: AVIATION TAXES

9.1 Introduction 9.2 Economic principles of aviation taxation 9.3 Air passenger duty 9.4 Aviation duty: illustrative options for reform 9.5 Issues in aviation tax reform 9.6 Conclusion

Chapter 10: CAPITAL GAINS TAX

10.1 Introduction 10.2 Background 10.3 CGT design and the proposed reform 10.4 Managing transition 10.5 The policymaking process 10.6 Conclusion 10.7 Postscript: entrepreneurs' relief

Chapter 11: CORPORATION TAX AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

11.1 Introduction 11.2 Corporation tax rates and entrepreneurship 11.3 Conclusion

Chapter 12: TAXATION OF COMPANIES' FOREIGN PROFITS

12.1 Introduction 12.2 The current UK system 12.3 Principles guiding the taxation of foreign profits 12.4 The June 2007 proposals 12.5 Implications of the proposed exemption system 12.6 Conclusion

Chapter 13: TAX SIMPLIFICATION

13.1 Introduction 13.2 A 10-yearly simplification cycle? 13.3 Recent 'simplifications' in practice 13.4 Conclusion

Chapter 14: THE IMPACT OF TAX AND BENEFIT REFORMS TO BE IMPLEMENTED IN APRIL 2008

14.1 Introduction 14.2 The changes due in April 2008 14.3 The impact on effective marginal tax rates 14.4 Winners and losers 14.5 The impact of tax and benefit changes since 1997 14.6 Conclusion

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Forecasting public finances Appendix B: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds

© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2008
ISBN: 978-1-903274-52-1