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Green Budget 2007
in collaboration with

The Green Budget 2007 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, Andrew Leicester and David Miles, and copy-edited by Judith Payne.

It was produced in collaboration with Morgan Stanley and with additional funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS.

You can download the whole document [3582 KB] here. Individual chapters can be downloaded below, also as acrobat files.

Chapter 1: SUMMARY

Chapter 2: THE PUBLIC FINANCES UNDER MR BROWN

2.1 Introduction: Brown's fiscal objectives
2.2 Brown's inheritance
2.3 The Brown decade
2.4 Brown's bequest
2.5 Brown's plans and forecasts
2.6 Uncertainty and the Treasury's fiscal forecasts
2.7 Fiscal monetary coordination
2.8 Conclusion

Chapter 3: THE FISCAL RULES AND POLICY FRAMEWORK

3.1 Introduction
3.2 The golden rule
3.3 The sustainable investment rule
3.4 Reforming the rules: a golden opportunity?

Chapter 4: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Recent developments
4.3 Productive potential and the economic cycle
4.4 The short-term outlook
4.5 The medium-term outlook

Chapter 5: GREEN BUDGET PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Short-term projections
5.3 Medium-term prospects
5.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions
5.5 The fiscal rules and the budget judgement

Chapter 6: FUNDING ISSUES AND DEBT MANAGEMENT

6.1 Introduction
6.2 The likely scale of debt issuance
6.3 Demand for gilts from the Bank of England
6.4 Optimal debt management
6.5 The impact of changing debt stock composition
6.6 Longevity and new types of debt instruments
6.7 Tax deductibility of corporate interest payments
6.8 Conclusion

Chapter 7: CHALLENGES FOR PUBLIC SPENDING

7.1 Introduction
7.2 Trends in UK public spending
7.3 Scenarios for the 2007 CSR
7.4 Longer-term spending pressures
7.5 Conclusion

Chapter 8: PUBLIC SERVICES PERFORMANCE

8.1 Introduction
8.2 Measuring public sector output and productivity
8.3 Trends in public sector preformance
8.4 Conclusion

Chapter 9: VAT FRAUD AND EVASION

9.1 Introduction
9.2 The vulnerability of VAT to evasion and fraud
9.3 Estimates of losses through evasion and fraud
9.4 Policy options to tackle VAT evasion and fraud

Chapter 10: TAXATION OF MULTINATIONALS AND THE ECJ

10.1 Introduction
10.2 Background
10.3 Controlled Foreign Companies rules
10.4 Taxation of foreign profits
10.5 Corporate tax rates

Chapter 11: ENVIRONMENTAL TAXATION

11.1 Introduction
11.2 The economics of environmental taxation
11.3 Current environmental taxes
11.4 Environmental tax revenues
11.5 Possible reforms
11.6 Conclusions

Chapter 12: SUPPORTING COUPLES WITH CHILDREN THROUGH THE TAX SYSTEM

12.1 Introduction
12.2 What should governments think about when designing taxes and benefits for couples?
12.3 The current system and its perceived drawbacks
12.4 Three proposals for reform
12.5 Conclusions

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds