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IFS is an ESRC Research Centre

 

Green Budget 2005

in collaboration with

The Green Budget 2005 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Zoë Oldfield, and copy-edited by Judith Payne.

It was produced in collaboration with Morgan Stanley and with additional funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for Fiscal Policy at IFS.

You can download the whole document 1682 KB] here. Individual chapters can be downloaded below, also as acrobat files. Chapter 7 has been revised [on 11 February] to correct errors in some of the figures.

*Chapter 1: SUMMARY
 
*Chapter 2: FISCAL POLICY FRAMEWORK
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Gordon Brown's fiscal rules
2.3 Forecasting the public finances
2.4 Meeting the golden rule
2.5 Meeting the sustainable investment rule
2.6 Reforming the fiscal framework
2.7 Conclusions
 
*Chapter 3: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Recent developments
3.3 The cycle, trend growth and spare capacity
3.4 Risks to the Pre-Budget Report forecast
 
*Chapter 4: PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Short-term projections
4.3 Medium-term prospects
4.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions
4.5 The fiscal rules and the Budget judgement
 
*Chapter 5: FUNDING ISSUES AND DEBT MANAGEMENT
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The outlook for the scale of debt issuance
5.3 How should government finance its cash needs?
5.4 The demand for fixed income assets: pension funds and life insurance companies
5.5 The supply/demand imbalance
5.6 Scope for government action
 
*Chapter 6: THE TAX BURDEN UNDER LABOUR
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The tax burden in historical context
6.3 Government revenues and policy decisions
6.4 Government revenues and general elections
 
*Chapter 7: THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF TAX AND BENEFIT REFORMS SINCE 1997
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Tax and benefit reforms since 1997
7.3 How do we allocate tax/benefit payments to households?
7.4 Distributional analysis of fiscal reforms since 1997
7.5 Conclusion
 
*Chapter 8: ISSUES IN BUSINESS TAXATION
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Corporation tax under pressure
8.3 Small business taxation
 
*Chapter 9: REFORMS TO CHILDCARE POLICY
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Why intervene in the childcare market?
9.3 The childcare tax credit
9.4 Expansion of free nursery provision
9.5 Conclusions
 
*Chapter 10: APPENDICES
Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Budgets since 1979
Appendix C: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix D: Tax revenues ready reckoner
 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2005
ISBN 1-903274-40-0

 

Presentations

Presentations from the Green Budget conference will be available in PowerPoint.

The economic outlook
David Miles

The public finances
Carl Emmerson

Funding issues and debt management
David Miles

Reforms to childcare policy
Mike Brewer

Business taxation
Alexander Klemm

The tax burden under Labour
Christine Frayne

The distributional effects of tax and benefit reforms since 1997
Stuart Adam

 
 
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